{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-10T11:24:43.743032+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "status": "historical_reassessment",
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-10T11:24:43.743032+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-a-2026-09-18-bbae81c68c02",
    "articleTitle": "A股市场解读 2026-09-18",
    "articleHref": "/markets/a-share/2026-09-18.html",
    "policy": "latest_report_only_no_historical_backfill",
    "digest": "333e9ba4f419c3e59250b9392354e6ae8fc3395832ec7ec92b2d00780fc52da8"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-4.0",
    "parentDigest": "ff2677b2da5bfbce2d6ee5aafbc2594a895dd5ddc80e785a11635ff6aaa4d945",
    "contextDigest": "f5cd6779056a8e917ed3c1150347382c03f7da6632f7e4a73d914f80ca03ad7b",
    "market": "a",
    "tradingDate": "2026-09-18",
    "targetSession": "2026-09-21",
    "state": "advancing",
    "headline": "上涨与中期趋势一致，延续是主判断",
    "verdict": "强势延续",
    "label": "延续",
    "thesis": "我倾向强势延续。6/6个指数上涨，4/6个高于20日均线，单日方向与中期位置相互确认。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "horizon-alignment",
      "dimension": "market_structure",
      "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
      "fact": "6/6个指数上涨，5/6个近5日上涨，4/6个站上20日均线。",
      "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏强，维持强势延续，跌破本期低点再改判。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 6,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 1,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "sh000001",
        "sh000300",
        "sh000905",
        "sh000852",
        "sz399006",
        "sh000688"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 6,
      "availableDimensionCount": 2,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "horizon-alignment",
        "state-coverage",
        "style-persistence",
        "price-boundary"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，4/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨覆盖与趋势覆盖相互确认。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-18",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日+0.78个百分点、近20日+3.54个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-18",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "price-boundary",
      "dimension": "market_structure",
      "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
      "observedFact": "沪深300收于4507.39，20日均线4548.67，本期低点4480.59；收盘位于日内区间75%。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
        "sampleSize": null,
        "percentile": null,
        "status": "available"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：收盘与均线位置支持延续，但跌破本期低点将直接否定承接。",
      "causalRole": "价格确认",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "sh000300"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-09-18",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4548.67或跌破4480.59，当前边界解释需要重算。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 5,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 1,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": false
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，4/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨覆盖与趋势覆盖相互确认。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-18",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，5/6个近5日上涨，4/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏强，维持强势延续，跌破本期低点再改判。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-18",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4507.39，20日均线4548.67，本期低点4480.59；收盘位于日内区间75%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：收盘与均线位置支持延续，但跌破本期低点将直接否定承接。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-18",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4548.67或跌破4480.59，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径显示的已定价程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-0.06%、近20日-2.41%；5日变化处于短样本第75分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 75,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-18",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日+0.78个百分点、近20日+3.54个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-18",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-0.06%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第75分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 75,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当前涨跌不极端，短历史分位不支持追涨或抄底，方向仍由趋势结构决定。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-18",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-09-18T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有同日行业表，不能推断产业链利润重新分配。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "4/6个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有5/6个。沪深300近20日-2.41%。",
        "meaning": "多数指数仍保有中期趋势支持，当前不采用全面转弱的解释。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "中证1000相对沪深300：当日+0.78个百分点，近20日+3.54个百分点。",
        "meaning": "当天与20日均领先，相对强度具备延续性；优先级高于只涨一天的方向。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "上证指数收于3911.87，位于日内区间的75%位置；距20日均线-0.27%。",
        "meaning": "收盘没有收复均线，盘中回升尚不足以推翻主判断。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更悲观的解释：只是单日脉冲",
      "text": "反对理由：4/6个指数已在20日均线上方，当日上涨并非孤立发生。"
    },
    "macro": [],
    "industry": [],
    "industryStructure": null,
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "优先看：中证1000相对表现",
        "text": "中证1000当日+1.84%、近20日+1.13%。两个窗口均相对领先，因此作为优先观察方向；相对领先不等于绝对上涨。",
        "condition": "中证1000下一交易日跑赢沪深300，且收盘高于7592.40，保留领先判断。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "上证指数收盘跌破3888.50，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "中证1000相对沪深300单日+0.78个百分点，但20日差值为+3.54个百分点。领先差值若持续收窄，应下调原来的风格优先级。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "强势延续",
        "text": "上证指数收盘仍在3888.50与3922.42之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "上证指数收盘突破3922.42且多数指数继续高于20日均线，维持强势延续判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "上证指数收盘低于3888.50，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "a",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "direction": ">=",
        "threshold": 3911.87,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-10-26",
        "dueAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.63,
        "invalidation": "2026-10-26收盘若低于3911.87点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为+0.58；当前状态为强势延续。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-10-26），上证指数预计不低于3911.87点。",
        "id": "pred-market-10f41ef1d767f4a474f3"
      },
      {
        "market": "a",
        "horizonSessions": 60,
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "direction": ">=",
        "threshold": 3911.87,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-12-21",
        "dueAt": "2026-12-21T15:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.58,
        "invalidation": "2026-12-21收盘若低于3911.87点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为+0.58；当前状态为强势延续。",
        "statement": "60个交易日后（2026-12-21），上证指数预计不低于3911.87点。",
        "id": "pred-market-35da78f1e6bd04ab3943"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "sh000001",
        "name": "上证指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000300",
        "name": "沪深300日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000905",
        "name": "中证500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000852",
        "name": "中证1000日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sz399006",
        "name": "创业板指日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000688",
        "name": "科创50日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [],
    "counts": {
      "up": 6,
      "down": 0,
      "aboveMa20": 4,
      "belowMa20": 2,
      "total": 6,
      "weeklyUp": 5
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "上证指数",
      "support": 3888.5,
      "close": 3911.87,
      "ma20": 3922.423,
      "confirmation": 3922.423,
      "toConfirmationPct": 0.2697686784070008,
      "toSupportPct": -0.5974124907013767
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "本期缺少个股广度、全市场成交额、行业表，不对这些维度作归因。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "估值与风险溢价：缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "跨资产验证：本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。",
      "产业链利润重新分配：本期没有同日行业表，不能推断产业链利润重新分配。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "briefDigest": "bbae81c68c0214c4314bd8805ffaf1b29f651354c913df1bfdc7f36dde09ff70"
  }
}