{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-25T02:10:16.703848+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-12T21:12:03.914834+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-a-2026-10-12-2298dd48ced3",
    "articleTitle": "A股市场解读 2026-10-12",
    "articleHref": "/markets/a-share/2026-10-12.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "4f33e2010475c8abb9785972de6a5baf52b6dfcc0c0ad3bd7037c2ee6c6bc4df"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-4.0",
    "parentDigest": "b6b335cf0ad83e5e656bfeadcdb7aded844f002a0aab3853e562b3c362f1ee1b",
    "contextDigest": "59280a53e45fb778141b5e5ed948b2de8135661dfbb3ae5f4aed3ea9c3105921",
    "market": "a",
    "tradingDate": "2026-10-12",
    "targetSession": "2026-10-13",
    "state": "weak",
    "headline": "6/6个指数承压，影视院线逆势、半导体是高成交压力中心",
    "verdict": "偏弱震荡",
    "label": "防守",
    "thesis": "我仍按偏弱震荡判断。6/6个指数收跌，6/6个在20日均线下；多数指数尚未收复均线，是我不采用全面转强判断的主要依据。 行业层面，10/36个覆盖行业上涨，中位数当日-1.87%；下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "sector-profit-map",
      "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
      "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
      "fact": "10/36个行业上涨；持续领先为影视院线、文化传媒、游戏、公路铁路运输、银行，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-2.73%、1644.42亿元）。",
      "meaning": "结论：其他相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调其他研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 8,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "breadth"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 8,
      "availableDimensionCount": 3,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "sector-profit-map",
        "index-participation",
        "state-coverage",
        "price-implied-pricing"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨；1155家上涨、4256家下跌、67家平盘，共5478家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场21.1%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "price-implied-pricing",
      "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
      "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
      "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.22%、近20日-5.72%；5日变化处于短样本第62分位。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
        "sampleSize": 16,
        "percentile": 62,
        "status": "partial"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
      "causalRole": "预期计入",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "sh000300"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-10-12",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 4,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 0,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": false
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "10/36个行业上涨；持续领先为影视院线、文化传媒、游戏、公路铁路运输、银行，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-2.73%、1644.42亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：其他相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调其他研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "价格与成交不能证明利润迁移；需核对同报告期的售价、销量、单位成本、利润率与经营现金流。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨；1155家上涨、4256家下跌、67家平盘，共5478家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场21.1%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏弱，维持弱势判断，站回20日均线再改判。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4287.98，20日均线4457.13，本期低点4279.71；收盘位于日内区间17%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：收盘未取得趋势位置支持，先按弱势结构处理。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4457.13或跌破4279.71，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日-1.20个百分点、近20日-0.76个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.22%、近20日-5.72%；5日变化处于短样本第62分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 62,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.22%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第62分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 62,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当前涨跌不极端，短历史分位不支持追涨或抄底，方向仍由趋势结构决定。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-12",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-12T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 3,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 3/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "行业价格和成交只确认相对表现；利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本、利润率与现金流证据。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "0/6个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有0/6个。沪深300近20日-5.72%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "中证1000相对沪深300：当日-1.20个百分点，近20日-0.76个百分点。",
        "meaning": "短期与20日均落后，相对弱势没有改善，反弹弹性还不是领先证据。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "上证指数收于3797.24，位于日内区间的17%位置；距20日均线-2.29%。",
        "meaning": "收近低点，日内承接偏弱，是继续向上推进的阻力。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "个股参与面",
        "fact": "1155家上涨、4256家下跌、67家持平；下跌占77.7%。",
        "meaning": "多数个股承压，指数反弹不能作为广泛机会的依据。",
        "role": "参与证据",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：全面反转已开始",
      "text": "反对理由：6/6个指数仍低于20日均线，近5日上涨的有0个。即使局部反弹，也不足以覆盖这组趋势证据。"
    },
    "macro": [],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "影视院线：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+3.67%、近5日+10.97%、近30日+20.83%，成交额147.18亿元。",
        "meaning": "用户与内容供给 → 付费率或票房 → 分成和获客成本 → 经营现金流。内容行业的关键不是曝光，而是用户留存、付费转化和内容成本。下一步应核对流水或票房、分成比例、销售费用和现金回收。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "文化传媒：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+2.37%、近5日+8.20%、近30日+14.24%，成交额470.08亿元。",
        "meaning": "用户与内容供给 → 付费率或票房 → 分成和获客成本 → 经营现金流。内容行业的关键不是曝光，而是用户留存、付费转化和内容成本。下一步应核对流水或票房、分成比例、销售费用和现金回收。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "贵金属：当日回撤但周度趋势仍正，先看优势是否继续收窄",
        "fact": "当日-4.71%、近5日+0.84%、近30日-19.86%，成交额191.95亿元。",
        "meaning": "实际利率与金价 → 矿产收入 → 成本差 → 利润。金矿企业的机会取决于金价减开采成本后的利润，而非金价本身；还要核对产量、汇率和套保。贵金属股票不等同于黄金现货。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": {
      "covered": 36,
      "advancing": 10,
      "declining": 26,
      "advanceSharePct": 27.8,
      "median1dPct": -1.87,
      "median5dPct": -0.36,
      "turnoverCoverageYi": 8717.76,
      "positiveTurnoverSharePct": 21.0,
      "topFiveTurnoverSharePct": 53.4,
      "leader": "影视院线",
      "leaderFamily": "其他",
      "laggard": "贵金属",
      "pressureCenter": "半导体",
      "pressureTurnoverYi": 1644.42,
      "pressureReturn1dPct": -2.73,
      "pressureFamily": "科技硬件",
      "persistentLeaders": [
        "影视院线",
        "文化传媒",
        "游戏",
        "公路铁路运输",
        "银行"
      ],
      "regime": "下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数",
      "thesis": "下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数。10/36个行业上涨，中位数当日-1.87%、近5日-0.36%；持续领先集中在影视院线、文化传媒、游戏。成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-2.73%、1644.42亿元），它比单纯的涨跌榜更能说明当前压力落在哪里。"
    },
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "优先看：沪深300相对表现",
        "text": "沪深300当日-0.68%、近20日-5.72%。两个窗口均相对领先，因此作为优先观察方向；相对领先不等于绝对上涨。",
        "condition": "沪深300收复4457.13后，再把整体修复的优先级上调。"
      },
      {
        "title": "影视院线：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+3.67%、近5日+10.97%、近30日+20.83%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 用户与内容供给 → 付费率或票房 → 分成和获客成本 → 经营现金流。内容行业的关键不是曝光，而是用户留存、付费转化和内容成本。下一步应核对流水或票房、分成比例、销售费用和现金回收。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      },
      {
        "title": "文化传媒：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+2.37%、近5日+8.20%、近30日+14.24%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 用户与内容供给 → 付费率或票房 → 分成和获客成本 → 经营现金流。内容行业的关键不是曝光，而是用户留存、付费转化和内容成本。下一步应核对流水或票房、分成比例、销售费用和现金回收。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "上证指数收盘跌破3791.00，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "中证1000相对沪深300单日-1.20个百分点，但20日差值为-0.76个百分点。领先差值若持续收窄，应下调原来的风格优先级。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "偏弱震荡",
        "text": "上证指数收盘仍在3791.00与3886.10之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "上证指数收盘高于3886.10，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "上证指数收盘低于3791.00，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "a",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 3797.24,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-11-09",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-09T15:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.7,
        "invalidation": "2026-11-09收盘若不低于3797.24点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-1.00；当前状态为偏弱震荡。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-11-09），上证指数预计低于3797.24点。",
        "id": "pred-market-b38469ebd5af855ec5a9"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "sh000001",
        "name": "上证指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000300",
        "name": "沪深300日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000905",
        "name": "中证500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000852",
        "name": "中证1000日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sz399006",
        "name": "创业板指日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000688",
        "name": "科创50日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "breadth",
        "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
        "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261012/c680585004.shtml"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [
      {
        "name": "影视院线",
        "return1dPct": 3.67,
        "turnoverYi": 147.18,
        "return5dPct": 10.97,
        "return30dPct": 20.83
      },
      {
        "name": "文化传媒",
        "return1dPct": 2.37,
        "turnoverYi": 470.08,
        "return5dPct": 8.2,
        "return30dPct": 14.24
      },
      {
        "name": "风电设备",
        "return1dPct": 2.34,
        "turnoverYi": 157.94,
        "return5dPct": -0.53,
        "return30dPct": 5.51
      },
      {
        "name": "银行",
        "return1dPct": 1.99,
        "turnoverYi": 362.79,
        "return5dPct": 3.62,
        "return30dPct": 5.32
      },
      {
        "name": "游戏",
        "return1dPct": 0.86,
        "turnoverYi": 64.97,
        "return5dPct": 3.78,
        "return30dPct": 0.74
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车整车",
        "return1dPct": 0.43,
        "turnoverYi": 141.67,
        "return5dPct": 0.54,
        "return30dPct": 1.67
      },
      {
        "name": "保险",
        "return1dPct": 0.42,
        "turnoverYi": 56.7,
        "return5dPct": 0.58,
        "return30dPct": 2.38
      },
      {
        "name": "公路铁路运输",
        "return1dPct": 0.41,
        "turnoverYi": 45.98,
        "return5dPct": 3.69,
        "return30dPct": 4.86
      },
      {
        "name": "光伏设备",
        "return1dPct": 0.2,
        "turnoverYi": 224.55,
        "return5dPct": -0.11,
        "return30dPct": -6.64
      },
      {
        "name": "证券",
        "return1dPct": 0.09,
        "turnoverYi": 161.38,
        "return5dPct": 1.62,
        "return30dPct": -0.13
      },
      {
        "name": "贵金属",
        "return1dPct": -4.71,
        "turnoverYi": 191.95,
        "return5dPct": 0.84,
        "return30dPct": -19.86
      },
      {
        "name": "种植业与林业",
        "return1dPct": -4.62,
        "turnoverYi": 160.74,
        "return5dPct": 1.01,
        "return30dPct": 11.03
      },
      {
        "name": "能源金属",
        "return1dPct": -3.95,
        "turnoverYi": 111.7,
        "return5dPct": -2.49,
        "return30dPct": -17.77
      },
      {
        "name": "元件",
        "return1dPct": -3.75,
        "turnoverYi": 839.89,
        "return5dPct": -9.21,
        "return30dPct": 1.31
      },
      {
        "name": "小金属",
        "return1dPct": -3.63,
        "turnoverYi": 171.84,
        "return5dPct": -4.52,
        "return30dPct": -15.24
      },
      {
        "name": "油气开采及服务",
        "return1dPct": -3.46,
        "turnoverYi": 45.9,
        "return5dPct": -1.33,
        "return30dPct": -5.58
      },
      {
        "name": "非金属材料",
        "return1dPct": -3.27,
        "turnoverYi": 37.51,
        "return5dPct": -6.66,
        "return30dPct": -8.09
      },
      {
        "name": "通信设备",
        "return1dPct": -3.03,
        "turnoverYi": 886.42,
        "return5dPct": -6.53,
        "return30dPct": -6.88
      },
      {
        "name": "生物制品",
        "return1dPct": -3.02,
        "turnoverYi": 154.87,
        "return5dPct": -1.33,
        "return30dPct": -2.07
      },
      {
        "name": "煤炭开采加工",
        "return1dPct": -3.0,
        "turnoverYi": 158.64,
        "return5dPct": 0.32,
        "return30dPct": 2.11
      },
      {
        "name": "半导体",
        "return1dPct": -2.73,
        "turnoverYi": 1644.42,
        "return5dPct": -10.98,
        "return30dPct": -11.26
      },
      {
        "name": "电池",
        "return1dPct": -2.28,
        "turnoverYi": 815.21,
        "return5dPct": 8.06,
        "return30dPct": 0.3
      },
      {
        "name": "化学制品",
        "return1dPct": -1.94,
        "turnoverYi": 393.8,
        "return5dPct": -0.38,
        "return30dPct": -0.71
      },
      {
        "name": "通用设备",
        "return1dPct": -1.82,
        "turnoverYi": 362.93,
        "return5dPct": -5.09,
        "return30dPct": -3.59
      },
      {
        "name": "化学制药",
        "return1dPct": -2.33,
        "turnoverYi": 357.03,
        "return5dPct": -0.36,
        "return30dPct": -2.55
      },
      {
        "name": "消费电子",
        "return1dPct": -1.92,
        "turnoverYi": 350.66,
        "return5dPct": -5.86,
        "return30dPct": -7.36
      },
      {
        "name": "厨卫电器",
        "return1dPct": -1.6,
        "turnoverYi": 7.75,
        "return5dPct": -0.36,
        "return30dPct": 2.97
      },
      {
        "name": "贸易",
        "return1dPct": -1.61,
        "turnoverYi": 10.59,
        "return5dPct": 0.94,
        "return30dPct": 0.86
      },
      {
        "name": "黑色家电",
        "return1dPct": -0.47,
        "turnoverYi": 11.4,
        "return5dPct": -1.68,
        "return30dPct": 1.33
      },
      {
        "name": "机场航运",
        "return1dPct": -0.12,
        "turnoverYi": 20.73,
        "return5dPct": 0.39,
        "return30dPct": -2.02
      },
      {
        "name": "教育",
        "return1dPct": -1.96,
        "turnoverYi": 21.68,
        "return5dPct": -0.16,
        "return30dPct": 6.82
      },
      {
        "name": "橡胶制品",
        "return1dPct": -1.53,
        "turnoverYi": 22.05,
        "return5dPct": -0.69,
        "return30dPct": 1.41
      },
      {
        "name": "造纸",
        "return1dPct": -2.22,
        "turnoverYi": 23.44,
        "return5dPct": -0.88,
        "return30dPct": 0.39
      },
      {
        "name": "电机",
        "return1dPct": -1.05,
        "turnoverYi": 25.05,
        "return5dPct": -2.29,
        "return30dPct": -4.47
      },
      {
        "name": "环保设备",
        "return1dPct": -2.06,
        "turnoverYi": 28.9,
        "return5dPct": -3.2,
        "return30dPct": -6.63
      },
      {
        "name": "轨交设备",
        "return1dPct": -0.59,
        "turnoverYi": 29.42,
        "return5dPct": -0.01,
        "return30dPct": 0.34
      }
    ],
    "counts": {
      "up": 0,
      "down": 6,
      "aboveMa20": 0,
      "belowMa20": 6,
      "total": 6,
      "weeklyUp": 0
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "上证指数",
      "support": 3791.0,
      "close": 3797.24,
      "ma20": 3886.1035,
      "confirmation": 3886.1035,
      "toConfirmationPct": 2.3402128914685516,
      "toSupportPct": -0.164329881703551
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "本期缺少全市场成交额，不对这些维度作归因。",
      "交易所未来日历尚未覆盖60个交易日，当前只登记可精确核对的20日预测。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "估值与风险溢价：缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "跨资产验证：本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "briefDigest": "42542c50eda891b16e756941f85be668b8a6322025a19d345b32c1dfa3b95798"
  }
}