{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-25T02:10:16.597587+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-20T16:43:14.542132+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-a-2026-10-20-cb9875df4623",
    "articleTitle": "A股市场解读 2026-10-20",
    "articleHref": "/markets/a-share/2026-10-20.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "41b6389c2767a53387986ba8395cad913edc7609b64c91a3711497e409558088"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-4.0",
    "parentDigest": "18c78b84fc3623e2c79002b881f06ad2515d885b68e1158390425bb8f78d5e75",
    "contextDigest": "6acd8db3f1da6c6c67e2a91417a261f749095826b19980b9783133842114af93",
    "market": "a",
    "tradingDate": "2026-10-20",
    "targetSession": "2026-10-21",
    "state": "rebound",
    "headline": "反弹成立，趋势反转尚未成立",
    "verdict": "反弹修复",
    "label": "修复",
    "thesis": "我的主判断是反弹修复，而非趋势反转。4/6个指数上涨，但只有0/6个站上20日均线；向上空间先看均线与本期高点。 行业层面，23/35个覆盖行业上涨，中位数当日+1.56%；上涨面占主导，强势不只集中在头部。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "sector-profit-map",
      "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
      "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
      "fact": "23/35个行业上涨；持续领先为厨卫电器，成交最活跃的下跌行业是银行（-1.12%、329.15亿元）。",
      "meaning": "结论：科技硬件相对金融地产占优，下一阶段上调科技硬件研究优先级、下调金融地产；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 8,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "breadth"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 8,
      "availableDimensionCount": 3,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "sector-profit-map",
        "horizon-alignment",
        "state-coverage",
        "index-participation"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "4/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：中期结构仍偏弱，窗口分化先按弱势反弹处理；只有站上20日均线的指数超过半数才改判为转强。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "4/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当日上涨覆盖扩大，但趋势位置尚未同步修复。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "index-participation",
      "dimension": "participation",
      "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
      "observedFact": "4/6个指数上涨；3734家上涨、1639家下跌、114家平盘，共5487家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场68.1%。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
        "sampleSize": null,
        "percentile": null,
        "status": "available"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
      "causalRole": "参与范围",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "breadth",
        "sh000001",
        "sh000300",
        "sh000905",
        "sh000852",
        "sz399006",
        "sh000688"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-10-20",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 7,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 1,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": true
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "23/35个行业上涨；持续领先为厨卫电器，成交最活跃的下跌行业是银行（-1.12%、329.15亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：科技硬件相对金融地产占优，下一阶段上调科技硬件研究优先级、下调金融地产；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "价格与成交不能证明利润迁移；需核对同报告期的售价、销量、单位成本、利润率与经营现金流。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "4/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：中期结构仍偏弱，窗口分化先按弱势反弹处理；只有站上20日均线的指数超过半数才改判为转强。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "4/6个指数上涨；3734家上涨、1639家下跌、114家平盘，共5487家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场68.1%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "4/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当日上涨覆盖扩大，但趋势位置尚未同步修复。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4152.11，20日均线4352.71，本期低点4113.14；收盘位于日内区间88%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：反弹已经发生，但站稳均线前不升级为趋势反转。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4352.71或跌破4113.14，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日+1.56个百分点、近20日-2.07个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向相反，单日轮动还不能升级为持续主线。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-2.89%、近20日-7.32%；5日变化处于短样本第44分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 44,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-2.89%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第44分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 44,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当前涨跌不极端，短历史分位不支持追涨或抄底，方向仍由趋势结构决定。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-20T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 3,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 3/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "行业价格和成交只确认相对表现；利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本、利润率与现金流证据。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "0/6个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有0/6个。沪深300近20日-7.32%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "中证1000相对沪深300：当日+1.56个百分点，近20日-2.07个百分点。",
        "meaning": "当天领先、20日仍落后，属于相对强弱的短线修复，尚非持续领先。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "上证指数收于3735.37，位于日内区间的88%位置；距20日均线-2.53%。",
        "meaning": "收近高点，说明盘中低位承接较强；但均线尚未收复，因此提高反弹评价，不上调为趋势反转。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "个股参与面",
        "fact": "3734家上涨、1639家下跌、114家持平；下跌占29.9%。",
        "meaning": "上涨家数超过半数，修复并非只体现在少数指数。",
        "role": "参与证据",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：新上升趋势已确认",
      "text": "反对理由：上涨的有4个，站上20日均线的只有0个。日内反弹证据已经出现，中期确认仍落后。"
    },
    "macro": [],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "自动化设备：只有当日回升，暂按修复而非行业反转",
        "fact": "当日+4.09%、近5日-1.15%、近30日-10.41%，成交额371.13亿元。",
        "meaning": "客户资本开支 → 在手订单 → 交付与产能利用率 → 回款。装备行业应从客户资本开支追到在手订单、交付和回款。收入确认快于现金回收，或订单增长但产能利用率不升，都要下调质量判断。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "消费电子：只有当日回升，暂按修复而非行业反转",
        "fact": "当日+3.37%、近5日-1.92%、近30日-12.70%，成交额396.18亿元。",
        "meaning": "下游资本开支与换机需求 → 订单和库存 → 产能利用率 → 毛利与现金流。科技硬件先核对订单、库存和产能利用率，软件与平台再看续费、客单价和费用率；不能把成交活跃直接写成产业景气。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "煤炭开采加工：日与周同时承压，行业预期仍在下调",
        "fact": "当日-2.26%、近5日-4.84%、近30日-9.87%，成交额108.02亿元。",
        "meaning": "商品价格与产量 → 单位收入 → 成本差 → 自由现金流。资源行业要把商品价格、产量、单位成本和资本开支放在一起看。价格上涨只有转成成本差和自由现金流，才可能支持利润与分红。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": {
      "covered": 35,
      "advancing": 23,
      "declining": 12,
      "advanceSharePct": 65.7,
      "median1dPct": 1.56,
      "median5dPct": -2.77,
      "turnoverCoverageYi": 9380.15,
      "positiveTurnoverSharePct": 82.8,
      "topFiveTurnoverSharePct": 49.3,
      "leader": "自动化设备",
      "leaderFamily": "科技硬件",
      "laggard": "煤炭开采加工",
      "pressureCenter": "银行",
      "pressureTurnoverYi": 329.15,
      "pressureReturn1dPct": -1.12,
      "pressureFamily": "金融地产",
      "persistentLeaders": [
        "厨卫电器"
      ],
      "regime": "上涨面占主导，强势不只集中在头部",
      "thesis": "上涨面占主导，强势不只集中在头部。23/35个行业上涨，中位数当日+1.56%、近5日-2.77%；持续领先集中在厨卫电器。成交最活跃的下跌行业是银行（-1.12%、329.15亿元），它比单纯的涨跌榜更能说明当前压力落在哪里。"
    },
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "先看轮动能否变成持续领先",
        "text": "中证1000与沪深300的单日、20日强弱未形成一致结论。本期不选定持续主线，保留两者对照。",
        "condition": "沪深300收复4352.71后，再把整体修复的优先级上调。"
      },
      {
        "title": "自动化设备：仅有单日反弹",
        "text": "当日+4.09%、近5日-1.15%、近30日-10.41%。周度表现尚未跟上，不列入持续主线。 客户资本开支 → 在手订单 → 交付与产能利用率 → 回款。装备行业应从客户资本开支追到在手订单、交付和回款。收入确认快于现金回收，或订单增长但产能利用率不升，都要下调质量判断。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      },
      {
        "title": "消费电子：仅有单日反弹",
        "text": "当日+3.37%、近5日-1.92%、近30日-12.70%。周度表现尚未跟上，不列入持续主线。 下游资本开支与换机需求 → 订单和库存 → 产能利用率 → 毛利与现金流。科技硬件先核对订单、库存和产能利用率，软件与平台再看续费、客单价和费用率；不能把成交活跃直接写成产业景气。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "上证指数收盘跌破3702.44，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "中证1000相对沪深300单日+1.56个百分点，但20日差值为-2.07个百分点。两个窗口方向不同，把单日赢家当成持续主线是本期主要风险。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "反弹修复",
        "text": "上证指数收盘仍在3702.44与3832.38之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "上证指数收盘高于3832.38，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "上证指数收盘低于3702.44，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "a",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 3735.37,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-11-17",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-17T15:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.66,
        "invalidation": "2026-11-17收盘若不低于3735.37点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-0.73；当前状态为反弹修复。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-11-17），上证指数预计低于3735.37点。",
        "id": "pred-market-a467298dd576638b01ab"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "sh000001",
        "name": "上证指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000300",
        "name": "沪深300日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000905",
        "name": "中证500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000852",
        "name": "中证1000日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sz399006",
        "name": "创业板指日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000688",
        "name": "科创50日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "breadth",
        "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
        "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261020/c680878401.shtml"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [
      {
        "name": "自动化设备",
        "return1dPct": 4.09,
        "turnoverYi": 371.13,
        "return5dPct": -1.15,
        "return30dPct": -10.41
      },
      {
        "name": "消费电子",
        "return1dPct": 3.37,
        "turnoverYi": 396.18,
        "return5dPct": -1.92,
        "return30dPct": -12.7
      },
      {
        "name": "半导体",
        "return1dPct": 2.92,
        "turnoverYi": 1897.59,
        "return5dPct": -5.12,
        "return30dPct": -18.35
      },
      {
        "name": "IT服务",
        "return1dPct": 2.83,
        "turnoverYi": 296.18,
        "return5dPct": -1.91,
        "return30dPct": -5.29
      },
      {
        "name": "医疗服务",
        "return1dPct": 2.72,
        "turnoverYi": 266.67,
        "return5dPct": -4.43,
        "return30dPct": -0.18
      },
      {
        "name": "软件开发",
        "return1dPct": 2.72,
        "turnoverYi": 333.39,
        "return5dPct": -1.76,
        "return30dPct": -2.85
      },
      {
        "name": "其他电子",
        "return1dPct": 2.58,
        "turnoverYi": 98.73,
        "return5dPct": -4.58,
        "return30dPct": -15.25
      },
      {
        "name": "非金属材料",
        "return1dPct": 2.56,
        "turnoverYi": 36.04,
        "return5dPct": -4.45,
        "return30dPct": -14.36
      },
      {
        "name": "通用设备",
        "return1dPct": 2.55,
        "turnoverYi": 454.98,
        "return5dPct": -2.5,
        "return30dPct": -9.06
      },
      {
        "name": "工程机械",
        "return1dPct": 2.47,
        "turnoverYi": 56.26,
        "return5dPct": -0.91,
        "return30dPct": -7.17
      },
      {
        "name": "煤炭开采加工",
        "return1dPct": -2.26,
        "turnoverYi": 108.02,
        "return5dPct": -4.84,
        "return30dPct": -9.87
      },
      {
        "name": "保险",
        "return1dPct": -2.25,
        "turnoverYi": 78.31,
        "return5dPct": -3.61,
        "return30dPct": -8.64
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车整车",
        "return1dPct": -1.5,
        "turnoverYi": 87.03,
        "return5dPct": -4.57,
        "return30dPct": -4.25
      },
      {
        "name": "机场航运",
        "return1dPct": -1.34,
        "turnoverYi": 26.88,
        "return5dPct": -1.72,
        "return30dPct": -4.49
      },
      {
        "name": "白酒",
        "return1dPct": -1.17,
        "turnoverYi": 113.46,
        "return5dPct": 1.24,
        "return30dPct": 0.16
      },
      {
        "name": "银行",
        "return1dPct": -1.12,
        "turnoverYi": 329.15,
        "return5dPct": -0.41,
        "return30dPct": 2.27
      },
      {
        "name": "证券",
        "return1dPct": -1.08,
        "turnoverYi": 219.27,
        "return5dPct": -2.02,
        "return30dPct": -7.6
      },
      {
        "name": "军工装备",
        "return1dPct": -0.92,
        "turnoverYi": 308.78,
        "return5dPct": 1.36,
        "return30dPct": -1.2
      },
      {
        "name": "港口航运",
        "return1dPct": -0.79,
        "turnoverYi": 78.56,
        "return5dPct": -4.35,
        "return30dPct": -2.98
      },
      {
        "name": "电力",
        "return1dPct": -0.79,
        "turnoverYi": 236.69,
        "return5dPct": -2.77,
        "return30dPct": -2.86
      },
      {
        "name": "通信设备",
        "return1dPct": 2.41,
        "turnoverYi": 921.05,
        "return5dPct": -4.4,
        "return30dPct": -13.22
      },
      {
        "name": "元件",
        "return1dPct": 2.01,
        "turnoverYi": 819.95,
        "return5dPct": -1.64,
        "return30dPct": -0.26
      },
      {
        "name": "电池",
        "return1dPct": 1.71,
        "turnoverYi": 495.45,
        "return5dPct": -6.34,
        "return30dPct": -9.12
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车零部件",
        "return1dPct": 1.82,
        "turnoverYi": 490.66,
        "return5dPct": -0.65,
        "return30dPct": -6.18
      },
      {
        "name": "文化传媒",
        "return1dPct": 0.46,
        "turnoverYi": 363.31,
        "return5dPct": -2.52,
        "return30dPct": 6.99
      },
      {
        "name": "化学制药",
        "return1dPct": 1.0,
        "turnoverYi": 339.38,
        "return5dPct": -3.23,
        "return30dPct": -5.12
      },
      {
        "name": "贸易",
        "return1dPct": -0.03,
        "turnoverYi": 9.82,
        "return5dPct": -5.19,
        "return30dPct": -7.14
      },
      {
        "name": "黑色家电",
        "return1dPct": 2.36,
        "turnoverYi": 14.52,
        "return5dPct": -0.94,
        "return30dPct": -4.93
      },
      {
        "name": "造纸",
        "return1dPct": 0.58,
        "turnoverYi": 15.29,
        "return5dPct": -3.57,
        "return30dPct": -6.61
      },
      {
        "name": "橡胶制品",
        "return1dPct": 1.56,
        "turnoverYi": 15.47,
        "return5dPct": -3.82,
        "return30dPct": -5.24
      },
      {
        "name": "厨卫电器",
        "return1dPct": 1.89,
        "turnoverYi": 18.77,
        "return5dPct": 2.27,
        "return30dPct": 2.53
      },
      {
        "name": "轨交设备",
        "return1dPct": 1.0,
        "turnoverYi": 20.2,
        "return5dPct": -1.74,
        "return30dPct": -3.02
      },
      {
        "name": "教育",
        "return1dPct": 1.99,
        "turnoverYi": 20.22,
        "return5dPct": -4.4,
        "return30dPct": -5.13
      },
      {
        "name": "燃气",
        "return1dPct": -0.67,
        "turnoverYi": 20.73,
        "return5dPct": -3.61,
        "return30dPct": -5.41
      },
      {
        "name": "综合",
        "return1dPct": 0.74,
        "turnoverYi": 22.03,
        "return5dPct": -4.72,
        "return30dPct": -6.63
      }
    ],
    "counts": {
      "up": 4,
      "down": 2,
      "aboveMa20": 0,
      "belowMa20": 6,
      "total": 6,
      "weeklyUp": 0
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "上证指数",
      "support": 3702.44,
      "close": 3735.37,
      "ma20": 3832.3805,
      "confirmation": 3832.3805,
      "toConfirmationPct": 2.597078736510716,
      "toSupportPct": -0.8815726420675851
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "本期缺少全市场成交额，不对这些维度作归因。",
      "交易所未来日历尚未覆盖60个交易日，当前只登记可精确核对的20日预测。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "估值与风险溢价：缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "跨资产验证：本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "briefDigest": "fd4cf0b9de4b59f4ef4a61be5a88363fc6bbdfc9405b4643e34a54c8cd38c13e"
  }
}