{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-27T07:20:19.012529+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-26T17:13:17.528376+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-a-2026-10-26-d6fd817edbce",
    "articleTitle": "A股市场解读 2026-10-26",
    "articleHref": "/markets/a-share/2026-10-26.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "5ceb992d150b5542db6842ac18bdfeaf371384410d74b4d07eaa408b022d28ea"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-5.0",
    "parentDigest": "35bbcf4809a9a82a8df0902dbb8fd5006e5528c94ca4f8877fdad12ae406010a",
    "contextDigest": "19c63f176c73499cba6fb677d732f6016593efce98336584a9f0c5e08830340f",
    "market": "a",
    "tradingDate": "2026-10-26",
    "targetSession": "2026-10-27",
    "state": "weak",
    "headline": "单日普涨修复强，但中期弱势结构未变",
    "verdict": "偏弱震荡",
    "label": "防守",
    "thesis": "10月23日全指数普涨、参与面广，是明确的单日修复；但0/6指数站上20日均线、仅2/6近5日上涨，表明中期价格结构仍弱，本次上涨目前只支持反弹而非转强。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "sector-profit-map",
      "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
      "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
      "fact": "14/37个行业上涨；持续领先为软件开发、医疗器械、游戏、医药商业、食品加工制造，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-3.84%、2034.02亿元）。",
      "meaning": "结论：消费服务相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调消费服务研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 8,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "breadth"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 8,
      "availableDimensionCount": 3,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "sector-profit-map",
        "state-coverage",
        "index-participation",
        "price-implied-pricing"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "1/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "1/6个指数上涨；2224家上涨、3113家下跌、151家平盘，共5488家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场40.5%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "price-implied-pricing",
      "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
      "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
      "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.70%、近20日-8.96%；5日变化处于短样本第75分位。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
        "sampleSize": 16,
        "percentile": 75,
        "status": "partial"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
      "causalRole": "预期计入",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "sh000300"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-10-26",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 5,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 1,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": false
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "14/37个行业上涨；持续领先为软件开发、医疗器械、游戏、医药商业、食品加工制造，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-3.84%、2034.02亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：消费服务相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调消费服务研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "价格与成交不能证明利润迁移；需核对同报告期的售价、销量、单位成本、利润率与经营现金流。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "1/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "1/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏弱，维持弱势判断，站回20日均线再改判。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "1/6个指数上涨；2224家上涨、3113家下跌、151家平盘，共5488家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场40.5%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4103.54，20日均线4275.67，本期低点4057.56；收盘位于日内区间96%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：收盘未取得趋势位置支持，先按弱势结构处理。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4275.67或跌破4057.56，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.70%、近20日-8.96%；5日变化处于短样本第75分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 75,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日-1.50个百分点、近20日-4.79个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.70%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第75分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 75,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当前涨跌不极端，短历史分位不支持追涨或抄底，方向仍由趋势结构决定。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-26T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "26/32个行业上涨；持续领先为电机、自动化设备、工程机械、软件开发、IT服务，成交最活跃的下跌行业是元件（-0.13%、972.37亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 9,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 3,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常3/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 9/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-23",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "breadth",
            "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
            "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261023/c681020629.shtml"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨；4476家上涨、885家下跌、129家平盘，共5490家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场81.5%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-23",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "breadth",
            "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
            "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261023/c681020629.shtml"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，2/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-23",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-23",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4105.33，20日均线4295.86，本期低点3958.14；收盘位于日内区间99%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-23",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日+0.67个百分点、近20日-2.83个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-23",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.57%、近20日-7.96%；5日变化处于短样本第81分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 81,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-23",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.57%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第81分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 81,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-23",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-margin-finance",
        "dimension": "positioning_flows",
        "title": "融资余额的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "融资余额在2026-10-22为24269.00990129亿元；较2026-10-21变化-233.63646195亿元（相对变化-0.95%）。该观测于2026-10-23T08:41:05.807219+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 919,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "交易参与和杠杆位置",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 3,
          "sourceQuality": 1,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:margin-finance",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d",
            "name": "东方财富·两融统计",
            "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPTA_WEB_MARGIN_DAILYTRADE&columns=ALL&pageSize=1000&pageNumber=1&sortColumns=STATISTICS_DATE&sortTypes=-1&filter=%28STATISTICS_DATE%3E%3D%272023-01-01%27%29",
            "type": "vendor"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-22",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-23T08:41:05.807219+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-dr007",
        "dimension": "funding_liquidity",
        "title": "存款类机构7天质押式回购加权利率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "存款类机构7天质押式回购加权利率在2026-10-22为1.3179%；较2026-10-21变化-0.0067个百分点（相对变化-0.51%）。该观测于2026-10-22T22:41:05.267188+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 15,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "资金价格与可用流动性",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 0,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:dr007",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9",
            "name": "全国银行间同业拆借中心",
            "url": "https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/r/cms/www/chinamoney/data/currency/pr-dly-bltn-interbank-mark.json",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-22",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-22T22:41:05.267188+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y",
        "dimension": "valuation_rates",
        "title": "中国10年期国债收益率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "中国10年期国债收益率在2026-10-22为1.6414%；较2026-10-21变化0.0002个百分点（相对变化+0.01%）。该观测于2026-10-22T19:40:37.586235+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 2541,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "汇率与折现率",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-fx-rates:china10y",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef",
            "name": "中债国债收益率曲线：10年期日终值",
            "url": "https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-czb-web/czb/czbChartIndex",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-22",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-22T19:40:37.586235+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "dimension": "real_economy",
        "title": "制造业PMI的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "制造业PMI在2026-09-30为50.1点；较2026-08-31变化0.3点（相对变化+0.60%）。该观测于2026-09-30T20:07:22.855379+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 122,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "订单、生产与需求",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-orders:manufacturingPmi",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd",
            "name": "国家统计局：9月份制造业采购经理指数",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202609/t20260930_1965449.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-09-30T20:07:22.855379+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-industrial-profit-margin",
        "dimension": "profit_cash",
        "title": "工业企业营业收入利润率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "工业企业营业收入利润率在2026-08-31为5.66%；较2026-07-31变化0个百分点（相对变化+0.00%）。该观测于2026-10-20T00:41:43.715101+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 3,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "利润、库存与回款",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1ad72b87c5"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 0,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:industrial-profit-margin",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1ad72b87c5",
            "name": "国家统计局工业企业财务数据",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202609/t20260928_1965425.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-08-31",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-20T00:41:43.715101+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      }
    ],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "行业价格和成交只确认相对表现；利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本、利润率与现金流证据。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "0/6个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有0/6个。沪深300近20日-8.96%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "中证1000相对沪深300：当日-1.50个百分点，近20日-4.79个百分点。",
        "meaning": "短期与20日均落后，相对弱势没有改善，反弹弹性还不是领先证据。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "上证指数收于3697.52，位于日内区间的96%位置；距20日均线-2.52%。",
        "meaning": "收近高点，说明盘中低位承接较强；但均线尚未收复，因此提高反弹评价，不上调为趋势反转。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "个股参与面",
        "fact": "2224家上涨、3113家下跌、151家持平；下跌占56.7%。",
        "meaning": "上涨家数未超过半数，参与面还不足以支持全面行情。",
        "role": "参与证据",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：全面反转已开始",
      "text": "反对理由：6/6个指数仍低于20日均线，近5日上涨的有0个。即使局部反弹，也不足以覆盖这组趋势证据。"
    },
    "macro": [],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "游戏：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+3.29%、近5日+2.98%、近30日-3.39%，成交额116.64亿元。",
        "meaning": "用户与内容供给 → 付费率或票房 → 分成和获客成本 → 经营现金流。内容行业的关键不是曝光，而是用户留存、付费转化和内容成本。下一步应核对流水或票房、分成比例、销售费用和现金回收。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "医药商业：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+3.09%、近5日+2.06%、近30日-1.27%，成交额54.37亿元。",
        "meaning": "患者需求与准入 → 销量和价格 → 研发销售费用 → 回款。医药链需要分开核对集采或医保价格、院内放量、研发投入和应收回款；销量增长不自动等于利润改善。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "元件：日与周同时承压，行业预期仍在下调",
        "fact": "当日-5.93%、近5日-9.97%、近30日-6.31%，成交额802.79亿元。",
        "meaning": "客户投入 → 订单 → 产能利用率 → 利润。重点核对客户资本开支能否转成订单、产能利用率和毛利率是否同步提升。股价走强只是线索，还不能替代订单兑现。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": {
      "covered": 37,
      "advancing": 14,
      "declining": 23,
      "advanceSharePct": 37.8,
      "median1dPct": -0.47,
      "median5dPct": -0.75,
      "turnoverCoverageYi": 9950.62,
      "positiveTurnoverSharePct": 22.7,
      "topFiveTurnoverSharePct": 49.2,
      "leader": "游戏",
      "leaderFamily": "消费服务",
      "laggard": "元件",
      "pressureCenter": "半导体",
      "pressureTurnoverYi": 2034.02,
      "pressureReturn1dPct": -3.84,
      "pressureFamily": "科技硬件",
      "persistentLeaders": [
        "软件开发",
        "医疗器械",
        "游戏",
        "医药商业",
        "食品加工制造"
      ],
      "regime": "下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数",
      "thesis": "下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数。14/37个行业上涨，中位数当日-0.47%、近5日-0.75%；持续领先集中在软件开发、医疗器械、游戏。成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-3.84%、2034.02亿元），它比单纯的涨跌榜更能说明当前压力落在哪里。"
    },
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "优先看：沪深300相对表现",
        "text": "沪深300当日-0.04%、近20日-8.96%。两个窗口均相对领先，因此作为优先观察方向；相对领先不等于绝对上涨。",
        "condition": "沪深300收复4275.67后，再把整体修复的优先级上调。"
      },
      {
        "title": "游戏：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+3.29%、近5日+2.98%、近30日-3.39%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 用户与内容供给 → 付费率或票房 → 分成和获客成本 → 经营现金流。内容行业的关键不是曝光，而是用户留存、付费转化和内容成本。下一步应核对流水或票房、分成比例、销售费用和现金回收。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      },
      {
        "title": "医药商业：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+3.09%、近5日+2.06%、近30日-1.27%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 患者需求与准入 → 销量和价格 → 研发销售费用 → 回款。医药链需要分开核对集采或医保价格、院内放量、研发投入和应收回款；销量增长不自动等于利润改善。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "上证指数收盘跌破3664.82，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "中证1000相对沪深300单日-1.50个百分点，但20日差值为-4.79个百分点。领先差值若持续收窄，应下调原来的风格优先级。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "偏弱震荡",
        "text": "上证指数收盘仍在3664.82与3793.17之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "上证指数收盘高于3793.17，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "上证指数收盘低于3664.82，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "a",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 3697.52,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-11-23",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-23T15:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.69,
        "invalidation": "2026-11-23收盘若不低于3697.52点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-0.93；当前状态为偏弱震荡。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-11-23），上证指数预计低于3697.52点。",
        "id": "pred-market-9192dea9572cf23f0501"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "sh000001",
        "name": "上证指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000300",
        "name": "沪深300日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000905",
        "name": "中证500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000852",
        "name": "中证1000日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sz399006",
        "name": "创业板指日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000688",
        "name": "科创50日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "breadth",
        "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
        "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261023/c681020629.shtml"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d",
        "name": "东方财富·两融统计",
        "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPTA_WEB_MARGIN_DAILYTRADE&columns=ALL&pageSize=1000&pageNumber=1&sortColumns=STATISTICS_DATE&sortTypes=-1&filter=%28STATISTICS_DATE%3E%3D%272023-01-01%27%29"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9",
        "name": "全国银行间同业拆借中心",
        "url": "https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/r/cms/www/chinamoney/data/currency/pr-dly-bltn-interbank-mark.json"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef",
        "name": "中债国债收益率曲线：10年期日终值",
        "url": "https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-czb-web/czb/czbChartIndex"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd",
        "name": "国家统计局：9月份制造业采购经理指数",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202609/t20260930_1965449.html"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1ad72b87c5",
        "name": "国家统计局工业企业财务数据",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202609/t20260928_1965425.html"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [
      {
        "name": "游戏",
        "return1dPct": 3.29,
        "turnoverYi": 116.64,
        "return5dPct": 2.98,
        "return30dPct": -3.39
      },
      {
        "name": "医药商业",
        "return1dPct": 3.09,
        "turnoverYi": 54.37,
        "return5dPct": 2.06,
        "return30dPct": -1.27
      },
      {
        "name": "白酒",
        "return1dPct": 2.5,
        "turnoverYi": 138.73,
        "return5dPct": -0.57,
        "return30dPct": -2.82
      },
      {
        "name": "油气开采及服务",
        "return1dPct": 2.3,
        "turnoverYi": 65.24,
        "return5dPct": 1.48,
        "return30dPct": -5.21
      },
      {
        "name": "保险",
        "return1dPct": 1.72,
        "turnoverYi": 69.87,
        "return5dPct": -0.05,
        "return30dPct": -10.83
      },
      {
        "name": "银行",
        "return1dPct": 1.52,
        "turnoverYi": 373.96,
        "return5dPct": -1.61,
        "return30dPct": -0.49
      },
      {
        "name": "食品加工制造",
        "return1dPct": 1.45,
        "turnoverYi": 79.84,
        "return5dPct": 1.63,
        "return30dPct": -4.61
      },
      {
        "name": "医疗器械",
        "return1dPct": 1.38,
        "turnoverYi": 240.53,
        "return5dPct": 3.33,
        "return30dPct": -2.61
      },
      {
        "name": "物流",
        "return1dPct": 1.33,
        "turnoverYi": 58.68,
        "return5dPct": -1.8,
        "return30dPct": -4.38
      },
      {
        "name": "零售",
        "return1dPct": 1.25,
        "turnoverYi": 123.71,
        "return5dPct": 1.52,
        "return30dPct": -6.82
      },
      {
        "name": "元件",
        "return1dPct": -5.93,
        "turnoverYi": 802.79,
        "return5dPct": -9.97,
        "return30dPct": -6.31
      },
      {
        "name": "贵金属",
        "return1dPct": -3.91,
        "turnoverYi": 197.23,
        "return5dPct": -7.86,
        "return30dPct": -25.59
      },
      {
        "name": "半导体",
        "return1dPct": -3.84,
        "turnoverYi": 2034.02,
        "return5dPct": -0.34,
        "return30dPct": -15.07
      },
      {
        "name": "电子化学品",
        "return1dPct": -3.65,
        "turnoverYi": 196.64,
        "return5dPct": -3.61,
        "return30dPct": -19.38
      },
      {
        "name": "其他电子",
        "return1dPct": -3.58,
        "turnoverYi": 128.81,
        "return5dPct": -0.06,
        "return30dPct": -13.61
      },
      {
        "name": "电机",
        "return1dPct": -2.83,
        "turnoverYi": 110.27,
        "return5dPct": 8.17,
        "return30dPct": -1.58
      },
      {
        "name": "小金属",
        "return1dPct": -2.5,
        "turnoverYi": 164.84,
        "return5dPct": -1.88,
        "return30dPct": -16.9
      },
      {
        "name": "通信设备",
        "return1dPct": -2.46,
        "turnoverYi": 960.27,
        "return5dPct": -1.72,
        "return30dPct": -13.64
      },
      {
        "name": "非金属材料",
        "return1dPct": -2.21,
        "turnoverYi": 29.53,
        "return5dPct": -1.02,
        "return30dPct": -12.15
      },
      {
        "name": "光学光电子",
        "return1dPct": -2.07,
        "turnoverYi": 331.13,
        "return5dPct": 0.96,
        "return30dPct": -8.86
      },
      {
        "name": "通用设备",
        "return1dPct": -1.53,
        "turnoverYi": 554.25,
        "return5dPct": 1.83,
        "return30dPct": -8.35
      },
      {
        "name": "自动化设备",
        "return1dPct": -1.47,
        "turnoverYi": 545.87,
        "return5dPct": 5.3,
        "return30dPct": -6.28
      },
      {
        "name": "电池",
        "return1dPct": -0.39,
        "turnoverYi": 539.45,
        "return5dPct": -1.47,
        "return30dPct": -9.03
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车零部件",
        "return1dPct": -0.43,
        "turnoverYi": 511.81,
        "return5dPct": 1.26,
        "return30dPct": -6.72
      },
      {
        "name": "软件开发",
        "return1dPct": 0.12,
        "turnoverYi": 483.72,
        "return5dPct": 5.04,
        "return30dPct": -1.54
      },
      {
        "name": "消费电子",
        "return1dPct": -1.42,
        "turnoverYi": 433.81,
        "return5dPct": 1.93,
        "return30dPct": -12.0
      },
      {
        "name": "文化传媒",
        "return1dPct": 0.44,
        "turnoverYi": 411.16,
        "return5dPct": -0.75,
        "return30dPct": 3.55
      },
      {
        "name": "厨卫电器",
        "return1dPct": -1.41,
        "turnoverYi": 9.43,
        "return5dPct": -2.44,
        "return30dPct": -4.05
      },
      {
        "name": "贸易",
        "return1dPct": 0.31,
        "turnoverYi": 10.81,
        "return5dPct": -1.21,
        "return30dPct": -8.19
      },
      {
        "name": "橡胶制品",
        "return1dPct": -0.93,
        "turnoverYi": 15.32,
        "return5dPct": -1.31,
        "return30dPct": -8.3
      },
      {
        "name": "造纸",
        "return1dPct": -0.47,
        "turnoverYi": 18.15,
        "return5dPct": -2.63,
        "return30dPct": -7.81
      },
      {
        "name": "教育",
        "return1dPct": -0.22,
        "turnoverYi": 19.27,
        "return5dPct": -4.3,
        "return30dPct": -11.07
      },
      {
        "name": "黑色家电",
        "return1dPct": -0.52,
        "turnoverYi": 21.04,
        "return5dPct": 2.48,
        "return30dPct": -3.98
      },
      {
        "name": "环保设备",
        "return1dPct": -1.53,
        "turnoverYi": 23.02,
        "return5dPct": -1.86,
        "return30dPct": -15.63
      },
      {
        "name": "旅游及酒店",
        "return1dPct": -0.32,
        "turnoverYi": 24.5,
        "return5dPct": -1.85,
        "return30dPct": -14.41
      },
      {
        "name": "纺织制造",
        "return1dPct": -0.65,
        "turnoverYi": 25.09,
        "return5dPct": -1.57,
        "return30dPct": -5.19
      },
      {
        "name": "燃气",
        "return1dPct": 0.94,
        "turnoverYi": 26.82,
        "return5dPct": -3.0,
        "return30dPct": -8.43
      }
    ],
    "counts": {
      "up": 1,
      "down": 5,
      "aboveMa20": 0,
      "belowMa20": 6,
      "total": 6,
      "weeklyUp": 0
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "上证指数",
      "support": 3664.82,
      "close": 3697.52,
      "ma20": 3793.166,
      "confirmation": 3793.166,
      "toConfirmationPct": 2.586760855925063,
      "toSupportPct": -0.8843765550963889
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "本期缺少全市场成交额，不对这些维度作归因。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "估值与风险溢价：缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "跨资产验证：本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "deepNarrative": {
      "stance": "rebound",
      "mainCandidateId": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
      "supportingCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-index-participation",
        "judgment-price-boundary"
      ],
      "riskCandidateId": "judgment-sector-profit-map",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "同一收盘快照上，6个指数当日全部上涨，但仅2/6近5日上涨，且0/6站上20日均线。当日、5日与20日均线来自重叠的价格序列，不能视为独立证据，但三者共同显示：本次上涨发生在中期下行路径之内，短期方向与中期位置没有同向。单日修复力度与中期弱势并存，价格结构上的定性是反弹而非趋势转强。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-index-participation"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "参与面提供了修复强度的下限：6/6指数上涨，全市场5490家中4476家上涨、885家下跌、129家平盘，上涨家数占含平盘样本的81.5%。如此广的上涨参与面说明修复不依赖个别指数，但指数覆盖不能据此排除权重股驱动，也不能证明资金来源或利润迁移；价格与成交数据本身不能确定当日买入是新增资金、空头回补还是利润再配置。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-price-boundary"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "结构位置给出改判参照：沪深300收于4105.33，仍低于20日均线4295.86，本期低点为3958.14；收盘位于日内区间99%。收盘位于日内区间的99%是对当日收盘位置的精确刻画，但日内位置不定义未来空间，收盘与20日均线、本期低点的距离也只是同一价格序列上的重叠窗口读数，不构成独立证据，也不能排除短期噪声。本快照只能确认：收盘高于本期低点、低于20日均线，中期分界的改判仍以到期收盘对这两条边界的相对位置为准。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-sector-profit-map"
          ],
          "claimType": "hypothesis",
          "text": "行业层面，26/32个行业上涨，电机、自动化设备、工程机械、软件开发、IT服务持续领先，成交最活跃的下跌行业是元件（-0.13%、972.37亿元）。这显示修复有明确的成长与制造主线，而非无差异普涨。作为机制假说，持续领先行业与活跃下跌行业的并存提示资金在行业间重新配置，但本快照缺少同报告期的利润率与现金流证据，利润迁移机制未被识别，只能停留在相对表现的观测层面。"
        }
      ],
      "riskText": "上证指数收盘在2026-11-20低于3690.48点时：提高弱势判断的置信度。",
      "contextCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "judgment-index-participation",
        "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "judgment-state-coverage",
        "judgment-price-boundary",
        "judgment-style-persistence",
        "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-margin-finance",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-dr007",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-industrial-profit-margin"
      ],
      "flowVersion": "market-deep-analysis-3.0",
      "judgmentAsOf": "2026-10-23T15:00:00+08:00",
      "judgmentTradingDate": "2026-10-23",
      "updateMode": "routine",
      "analysisStatus": "stale",
      "explanationRanking": [
        {
          "explanation": "中期下行通道内的单日广基修复假说：当日与5日、20日位置的错位表明买方力量尚未改变中期结构，领先行业持续性显示修复有主线但尚不构成趋势反转。",
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "limitation": "缺少一致预期、估值与仓位衍生品数据，驱动本次上涨的资金来源与折现率或盈利机制均未被识别。"
        }
      ],
      "judgmentConfidence": 0.65,
      "missingEvidence": [
        "市场一致盈利预测修正记录",
        "时点一致的指数估值与风险溢价组合",
        "基金仓位、融资拥挤度与期权偏度等仓位与衍生品数据"
      ],
      "retainedPredictionIds": [],
      "observation": {
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "thresholdOptionId": "close",
        "direction": "<",
        "consequence": "提高弱势判断的置信度。",
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "threshold": 3690.48,
        "dueSession": "2026-11-20",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-20T15:00:00+08:00",
        "unit": "点"
      }
    },
    "analysisStatus": "ready",
    "briefDigest": "ad539e8af8666ddab553f95036510d75ab0611f7a080db6000aff0f381731675"
  }
}