{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-28T17:13:15.529335+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "status": "historical_reassessment",
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-28T17:13:15.529335+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-a-2026-10-27-c8e345777dc8",
    "articleTitle": "A股市场解读 2026-10-27",
    "articleHref": "/markets/a-share/2026-10-27.html",
    "policy": "latest_report_only_no_historical_backfill",
    "digest": "c5f240a558946b09480992350daddbbce61cc0626a256be85425d9a20a55ccde"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-4.0",
    "parentDigest": "34b4c7de62e4bd55605989a4b7d2e66468ba83489ee9dbc2e776bfae21a7b415",
    "contextDigest": "a0b483efadc80449d8eac67c317fd008fd26b976c3bff58bf5f8d4372f8bb068",
    "market": "a",
    "tradingDate": "2026-10-27",
    "targetSession": "2026-10-28",
    "state": "weak",
    "headline": "6/6个指数承压，电机逆势、半导体是高成交压力中心",
    "verdict": "偏弱震荡",
    "label": "防守",
    "thesis": "我仍按偏弱震荡判断。6/6个指数收跌，6/6个在20日均线下；多数指数尚未收复均线，是我不采用全面转强判断的主要依据。 行业层面，4/35个覆盖行业上涨，中位数当日-2.50%；下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "sector-profit-map",
      "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
      "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
      "fact": "4/35个行业上涨；持续领先为电机、零售、银行，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-4.56%、1770.95亿元）。",
      "meaning": "结论：工业运输相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调工业运输研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 9,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 3,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常3/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 9/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "breadth"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 8,
      "availableDimensionCount": 3,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "sector-profit-map",
        "index-participation",
        "state-coverage",
        "price-implied-pricing"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨；593家上涨、4859家下跌、36家平盘，共5488家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场10.8%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "price-implied-pricing",
      "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
      "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
      "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-2.47%、近20日-10.79%；5日变化处于短样本第75分位。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
        "sampleSize": 16,
        "percentile": 75,
        "status": "partial"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
      "causalRole": "预期计入",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "sh000300"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-10-27",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 5,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 1,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": false
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "4/35个行业上涨；持续领先为电机、零售、银行，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-4.56%、1770.95亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：工业运输相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调工业运输研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "价格与成交不能证明利润迁移；需核对同报告期的售价、销量、单位成本、利润率与经营现金流。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 9,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 3,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常3/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 9/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨；593家上涨、4859家下跌、36家平盘，共5488家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场10.8%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏弱，维持弱势判断，站回20日均线再改判。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4049.55，20日均线4251.17，本期低点4049.54；收盘位于日内区间0%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：收盘未取得趋势位置支持，先按弱势结构处理。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4251.17或跌破4049.54，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-2.47%、近20日-10.79%；5日变化处于短样本第75分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 75,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日-1.75个百分点、近20日-6.45个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-2.47%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第75分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 75,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当前涨跌不极端，短历史分位不支持追涨或抄底，方向仍由趋势结构决定。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-27T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "行业价格和成交只确认相对表现；利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本、利润率与现金流证据。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "0/6个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有0/6个。沪深300近20日-10.79%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "中证1000相对沪深300：当日-1.75个百分点，近20日-6.45个百分点。",
        "meaning": "短期与20日均落后，相对弱势没有改善，反弹弹性还不是领先证据。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "上证指数收于3648.30，位于日内区间的0%位置；距20日均线-3.44%。",
        "meaning": "收近低点，日内承接偏弱，是继续向上推进的阻力。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "个股参与面",
        "fact": "593家上涨、4859家下跌、36家持平；下跌占88.5%。",
        "meaning": "多数个股承压，指数反弹不能作为广泛机会的依据。",
        "role": "参与证据",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：全面反转已开始",
      "text": "反对理由：6/6个指数仍低于20日均线，近5日上涨的有0个。即使局部反弹，也不足以覆盖这组趋势证据。"
    },
    "macro": [],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "电机：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+1.68%、近5日+7.63%、近30日-0.47%，成交额105.50亿元。",
        "meaning": "终端景气与竞争格局 → 量价组合 → 单位利润 → 经营现金流。先确认行业的销量、价格和竞争格局，再核对单位利润、库存、应收与资本开支。行业涨跌只代表预期变化，不能替代经营数据。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "银行：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+1.34%、近5日+0.84%、近30日+2.33%，成交额378.83亿元。",
        "meaning": "利率与市场活跃度 → 利差或手续费 → 信用和投资损益 → 净利润。金融行业必须拆开利差、手续费、信用成本和投资收益。成交放大或利率变化只影响部分收入，不能直接推出净利润同向变化。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "软件开发：日与周同时承压，行业预期仍在下调",
        "fact": "当日-4.83%、近5日-2.68%、近30日-5.97%，成交额401.89亿元。",
        "meaning": "下游资本开支与换机需求 → 订单和库存 → 产能利用率 → 毛利与现金流。科技硬件先核对订单、库存和产能利用率，软件与平台再看续费、客单价和费用率；不能把成交活跃直接写成产业景气。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": {
      "covered": 35,
      "advancing": 4,
      "declining": 31,
      "advanceSharePct": 11.4,
      "median1dPct": -2.5,
      "median5dPct": -4.17,
      "turnoverCoverageYi": 8494.34,
      "positiveTurnoverSharePct": 8.3,
      "topFiveTurnoverSharePct": 50.9,
      "leader": "电机",
      "leaderFamily": "工业运输",
      "laggard": "软件开发",
      "pressureCenter": "半导体",
      "pressureTurnoverYi": 1770.95,
      "pressureReturn1dPct": -4.56,
      "pressureFamily": "科技硬件",
      "persistentLeaders": [
        "电机",
        "零售",
        "银行"
      ],
      "regime": "下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数",
      "thesis": "下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数。4/35个行业上涨，中位数当日-2.50%、近5日-4.17%；持续领先集中在电机、零售、银行。成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-4.56%、1770.95亿元），它比单纯的涨跌榜更能说明当前压力落在哪里。"
    },
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "优先看：沪深300相对表现",
        "text": "沪深300当日-1.32%、近20日-10.79%。两个窗口均相对领先，因此作为优先观察方向；相对领先不等于绝对上涨。",
        "condition": "沪深300收复4251.17后，再把整体修复的优先级上调。"
      },
      {
        "title": "电机：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+1.68%、近5日+7.63%、近30日-0.47%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 终端景气与竞争格局 → 量价组合 → 单位利润 → 经营现金流。先确认行业的销量、价格和竞争格局，再核对单位利润、库存、应收与资本开支。行业涨跌只代表预期变化，不能替代经营数据。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      },
      {
        "title": "银行：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+1.34%、近5日+0.84%、近30日+2.33%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 利率与市场活跃度 → 利差或手续费 → 信用和投资损益 → 净利润。金融行业必须拆开利差、手续费、信用成本和投资收益。成交放大或利率变化只影响部分收入，不能直接推出净利润同向变化。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "上证指数收盘跌破3648.30，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "中证1000相对沪深300单日-1.75个百分点，但20日差值为-6.45个百分点。领先差值若持续收窄，应下调原来的风格优先级。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "偏弱震荡",
        "text": "上证指数收盘仍在3648.30与3778.09之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "上证指数收盘高于3778.09，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "上证指数收盘低于3648.30，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "sh000001",
        "name": "上证指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000300",
        "name": "沪深300日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000905",
        "name": "中证500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000852",
        "name": "中证1000日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sz399006",
        "name": "创业板指日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000688",
        "name": "科创50日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "breadth",
        "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
        "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261027/c681130960.shtml"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [
      {
        "name": "电机",
        "return1dPct": 1.68,
        "turnoverYi": 105.5,
        "return5dPct": 7.63,
        "return30dPct": -0.47
      },
      {
        "name": "银行",
        "return1dPct": 1.34,
        "turnoverYi": 378.83,
        "return5dPct": 0.84,
        "return30dPct": 2.33
      },
      {
        "name": "零售",
        "return1dPct": 0.38,
        "turnoverYi": 137.26,
        "return5dPct": 1.64,
        "return30dPct": -8.76
      },
      {
        "name": "港口航运",
        "return1dPct": 0.08,
        "turnoverYi": 82.51,
        "return5dPct": -1.58,
        "return30dPct": -6.04
      },
      {
        "name": "煤炭开采加工",
        "return1dPct": -0.21,
        "turnoverYi": 99.52,
        "return5dPct": -4.17,
        "return30dPct": -7.33
      },
      {
        "name": "燃气",
        "return1dPct": -0.31,
        "turnoverYi": 32.15,
        "return5dPct": -2.65,
        "return30dPct": -8.14
      },
      {
        "name": "保险",
        "return1dPct": -0.42,
        "turnoverYi": 64.02,
        "return5dPct": 1.82,
        "return30dPct": -8.97
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车整车",
        "return1dPct": -0.43,
        "turnoverYi": 69.15,
        "return5dPct": -2.0,
        "return30dPct": -5.77
      },
      {
        "name": "机场航运",
        "return1dPct": -0.59,
        "turnoverYi": 24.87,
        "return5dPct": -0.57,
        "return30dPct": -6.56
      },
      {
        "name": "公路铁路运输",
        "return1dPct": -0.73,
        "turnoverYi": 35.09,
        "return5dPct": -2.14,
        "return30dPct": -2.52
      },
      {
        "name": "软件开发",
        "return1dPct": -4.83,
        "turnoverYi": 401.89,
        "return5dPct": -2.68,
        "return30dPct": -5.97
      },
      {
        "name": "军工装备",
        "return1dPct": -4.82,
        "turnoverYi": 258.79,
        "return5dPct": -7.53,
        "return30dPct": -10.59
      },
      {
        "name": "半导体",
        "return1dPct": -4.56,
        "turnoverYi": 1770.95,
        "return5dPct": -7.59,
        "return30dPct": -20.95
      },
      {
        "name": "军工电子",
        "return1dPct": -4.48,
        "turnoverYi": 124.52,
        "return5dPct": -6.76,
        "return30dPct": -12.06
      },
      {
        "name": "元件",
        "return1dPct": -4.19,
        "turnoverYi": 660.46,
        "return5dPct": -15.45,
        "return30dPct": -15.98
      },
      {
        "name": "互联网电商",
        "return1dPct": -4.17,
        "turnoverYi": 54.05,
        "return5dPct": -6.49,
        "return30dPct": -9.21
      },
      {
        "name": "IT服务",
        "return1dPct": -4.12,
        "turnoverYi": 330.24,
        "return5dPct": -2.51,
        "return30dPct": -8.18
      },
      {
        "name": "生物制品",
        "return1dPct": -4.09,
        "turnoverYi": 107.3,
        "return5dPct": -4.75,
        "return30dPct": -5.73
      },
      {
        "name": "计算机设备",
        "return1dPct": -3.99,
        "turnoverYi": 217.97,
        "return5dPct": -4.95,
        "return30dPct": -10.7
      },
      {
        "name": "医疗服务",
        "return1dPct": -3.85,
        "turnoverYi": 252.01,
        "return5dPct": -7.49,
        "return30dPct": -6.58
      },
      {
        "name": "通信设备",
        "return1dPct": -3.48,
        "turnoverYi": 863.91,
        "return5dPct": -7.37,
        "return30dPct": -19.67
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车零部件",
        "return1dPct": -1.29,
        "turnoverYi": 528.49,
        "return5dPct": -1.83,
        "return30dPct": -8.83
      },
      {
        "name": "通用设备",
        "return1dPct": -3.26,
        "turnoverYi": 497.43,
        "return5dPct": -3.94,
        "return30dPct": -12.44
      },
      {
        "name": "自动化设备",
        "return1dPct": -3.51,
        "turnoverYi": 423.87,
        "return5dPct": -2.39,
        "return30dPct": -12.24
      },
      {
        "name": "文化传媒",
        "return1dPct": -2.25,
        "turnoverYi": 406.22,
        "return5dPct": -3.43,
        "return30dPct": -0.36
      },
      {
        "name": "电池",
        "return1dPct": -3.6,
        "turnoverYi": 396.35,
        "return5dPct": -6.61,
        "return30dPct": -12.84
      },
      {
        "name": "贸易",
        "return1dPct": -2.5,
        "turnoverYi": 9.43,
        "return5dPct": -3.65,
        "return30dPct": -10.5
      },
      {
        "name": "厨卫电器",
        "return1dPct": -1.91,
        "turnoverYi": 14.09,
        "return5dPct": -6.07,
        "return30dPct": -3.7
      },
      {
        "name": "橡胶制品",
        "return1dPct": -3.36,
        "turnoverYi": 15.87,
        "return5dPct": -6.09,
        "return30dPct": -12.13
      },
      {
        "name": "造纸",
        "return1dPct": -2.22,
        "turnoverYi": 17.54,
        "return5dPct": -5.34,
        "return30dPct": -11.01
      },
      {
        "name": "教育",
        "return1dPct": -3.67,
        "turnoverYi": 18.02,
        "return5dPct": -9.6,
        "return30dPct": -14.77
      },
      {
        "name": "环保设备",
        "return1dPct": -2.98,
        "turnoverYi": 22.11,
        "return5dPct": -6.85,
        "return30dPct": -18.24
      },
      {
        "name": "轨交设备",
        "return1dPct": -2.3,
        "turnoverYi": 23.34,
        "return5dPct": -3.57,
        "return30dPct": -6.76
      },
      {
        "name": "纺织制造",
        "return1dPct": -1.95,
        "turnoverYi": 23.83,
        "return5dPct": -4.3,
        "return30dPct": -7.25
      },
      {
        "name": "非金属材料",
        "return1dPct": -2.27,
        "turnoverYi": 26.76,
        "return5dPct": -5.69,
        "return30dPct": -17.83
      }
    ],
    "counts": {
      "up": 0,
      "down": 6,
      "aboveMa20": 0,
      "belowMa20": 6,
      "total": 6,
      "weeklyUp": 0
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "上证指数",
      "support": 3648.3,
      "close": 3648.3,
      "ma20": 3778.0855,
      "confirmation": 3778.0855,
      "toConfirmationPct": 3.557424005701293,
      "toSupportPct": 0.0
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "本期缺少全市场成交额，不对这些维度作归因。",
      "交易所未来日历尚未覆盖60个交易日，当前只登记可精确核对的20日预测。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "估值与风险溢价：缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "跨资产验证：本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。",
      "本页为历史补生成，不事后登记方向预测。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "briefDigest": "c8e345777dc8fc1ff04bc582e2191e0ec5ea3eba35a16bf36da550e35f6356c8"
  }
}