{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-29T17:15:23.876527+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-29T17:13:15.427140+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-a-2026-10-29-5d7c07b6db7b",
    "articleTitle": "A股市场解读 2026-10-29",
    "articleHref": "/markets/a-share/2026-10-29.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "bc89844e4ac02b859540982803bb39ba1874cca74a3c8f59fdeeaf43432d710b"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-5.0",
    "parentDigest": "414d037fce8ae9ac563035f1bf8ed73cbb07432adf62b4b7f6cec628894bcb8d",
    "contextDigest": "1f9e91824c70a7bf5b7fa69783ceb6668a040b5c368e6995727f6bd39a99d41c",
    "market": "a",
    "tradingDate": "2026-10-29",
    "targetSession": "2026-10-30",
    "state": "weak",
    "headline": "单日广基修复成立，但中期弱势结构未变",
    "verdict": "偏弱震荡",
    "label": "防守",
    "thesis": "10月28日六大指数全部上涨、参与面广、中小成长领涨，修复在当日维度明确；但0/6个指数近5日上涨、0/6站上20日均线，价格结构显示这是中期弱势中的一次强力单日反弹，尚不足以确认趋势转强。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "index-participation",
      "dimension": "participation",
      "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
      "fact": "0/6个指数上涨；766家上涨、4664家下跌、60家平盘，共5490家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场14.0%。",
      "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 8,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "breadth",
        "sh000001",
        "sh000300",
        "sh000905",
        "sh000852",
        "sz399006",
        "sh000688"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 8,
      "availableDimensionCount": 3,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "index-participation",
        "sector-profit-map",
        "state-coverage",
        "historical-five-day"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "7/34个行业上涨；持续领先为影视院线、保险、银行、白酒、煤炭开采加工，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-5.54%、1922.30亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：金融地产相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调金融地产研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "价格与成交不能证明利润迁移；需核对同报告期的售价、销量、单位成本、利润率与经营现金流。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "historical-five-day",
      "dimension": "historical_percentile",
      "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
      "observedFact": "沪深300近5日+0.14%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第94分位。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
        "sampleSize": 16,
        "percentile": 94,
        "status": "available"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：短线已过热，继续追涨的优先级下调，先防5日涨幅回吐；该分位只定义短期位置。",
      "causalRole": "历史异常",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "sh000300"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-10-29",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 6,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": true
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨；766家上涨、4664家下跌、60家平盘，共5490家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场14.0%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "7/34个行业上涨；持续领先为影视院线、保险、银行、白酒、煤炭开采加工，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-5.54%、1922.30亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：金融地产相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调金融地产研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "价格与成交不能证明利润迁移；需核对同报告期的售价、销量、单位成本、利润率与经营现金流。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日+0.14%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第94分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 94,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线已过热，继续追涨的优先级下调，先防5日涨幅回吐；该分位只定义短期位置。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，1/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏弱，维持弱势判断，站回20日均线再改判。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4041.84，20日均线4204.36，本期低点4030.23；收盘位于日内区间19%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：收盘未取得趋势位置支持，先按弱势结构处理。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4204.36或跌破4030.23，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日+0.14%、近20日-10.52%；5日变化处于短样本第94分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 94,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线上涨已过热，降低追涨优先级；盈利、流动性或风险偏好出现新增证据前，不上调强势判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日-2.00个百分点、近20日-7.12个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "25/35个行业上涨；持续领先为汽车零部件、自动化设备，成交最活跃的下跌行业是银行（-0.35%、346.01亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "breadth",
            "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
            "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261028/c681183299.shtml"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨；4112家上涨、1207家下跌、170家平盘，共5489家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场74.9%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "breadth",
            "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
            "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261028/c681183299.shtml"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-0.68%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第94分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 94,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4083.87，20日均线4228.13，本期低点4054.11；收盘位于日内区间91%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-0.68%、近20日-10.14%；5日变化处于短样本第94分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 94,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日+1.50个百分点、近20日-5.08个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-margin-finance",
        "dimension": "positioning_flows",
        "title": "融资余额的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "融资余额在2026-10-27为23809.72393331亿元；较2026-10-26变化-160.82705408亿元（相对变化-0.67%）。该观测于2026-10-28T08:24:24.412007+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 922,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "交易参与和杠杆位置",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 3,
          "sourceQuality": 1,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:margin-finance",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d",
            "name": "东方财富·两融统计",
            "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPTA_WEB_MARGIN_DAILYTRADE&columns=ALL&pageSize=1000&pageNumber=1&sortColumns=STATISTICS_DATE&sortTypes=-1&filter=%28STATISTICS_DATE%3E%3D%272023-01-01%27%29",
            "type": "vendor"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-28T08:24:24.412007+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-dr007",
        "dimension": "funding_liquidity",
        "title": "存款类机构7天质押式回购加权利率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "存款类机构7天质押式回购加权利率在2026-10-27为1.35%；较2026-10-26变化-0.0266个百分点（相对变化-1.93%）。该观测于2026-10-27T22:24:21.463313+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 18,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "资金价格与可用流动性",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 0,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:dr007",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9",
            "name": "全国银行间同业拆借中心",
            "url": "https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/r/cms/www/chinamoney/data/currency/pr-dly-bltn-interbank-mark.json",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-27T22:24:21.463313+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y",
        "dimension": "valuation_rates",
        "title": "中国10年期国债收益率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "中国10年期国债收益率在2026-10-27为1.6258%；较2026-10-26变化-0.0118个百分点（相对变化-0.72%）。该观测于2026-10-28T14:39:51.133620+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 2544,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "汇率与折现率",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-fx-rates:china10y",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef",
            "name": "中债国债收益率曲线：10年期日终值",
            "url": "https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-czb-web/czb/czbChartIndex",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-28T14:39:51.133620+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "dimension": "real_economy",
        "title": "制造业PMI的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "制造业PMI在2026-09-30为50.1点；较2026-08-31变化0.3点（相对变化+0.60%）。该观测于2026-09-30T20:07:22.855379+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 122,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "订单、生产与需求",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-orders:manufacturingPmi",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd",
            "name": "国家统计局：9月份制造业采购经理指数",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202609/t20260930_1965449.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-09-30T20:07:22.855379+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY",
        "dimension": "profit_cash",
        "title": "工业利润累计同比的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "工业利润累计同比在2026-09-30为15.5%；较2026-08-31变化-0.2个百分点（相对变化-1.27%）。该观测于2026-10-27T10:07:24.989426+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 3,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "利润、库存与回款",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-profits:industrialProfitsYtdYoY",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22",
            "name": "国家统计局：1—9月规模以上工业企业利润累计同比",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261027_1965697.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-27T10:07:24.989426+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      }
    ],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "行业价格和成交只确认相对表现；利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本、利润率与现金流证据。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "0/6个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有1/6个。沪深300近20日-10.52%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "中证1000相对沪深300：当日-2.00个百分点，近20日-7.12个百分点。",
        "meaning": "短期与20日均落后，相对弱势没有改善，反弹弹性还不是领先证据。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "上证指数收于3651.43，位于日内区间的19%位置；距20日均线-2.64%。",
        "meaning": "收近低点，日内承接偏弱，是继续向上推进的阻力。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "个股参与面",
        "fact": "766家上涨、4664家下跌、60家持平；下跌占85.0%。",
        "meaning": "多数个股承压，指数反弹不能作为广泛机会的依据。",
        "role": "参与证据",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：全面反转已开始",
      "text": "反对理由：6/6个指数仍低于20日均线，近5日上涨的有1个。即使局部反弹，也不足以覆盖这组趋势证据。"
    },
    "macro": [],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "银行：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+1.98%、近5日+3.98%、近30日+2.82%，成交额394.82亿元。",
        "meaning": "利率与市场活跃度 → 利差或手续费 → 信用和投资损益 → 净利润。金融行业必须拆开利差、手续费、信用成本和投资收益。成交放大或利率变化只影响部分收入，不能直接推出净利润同向变化。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "风电设备：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+1.64%、近5日+0.87%、近30日-6.32%，成交额116.69亿元。",
        "meaning": "客户资本开支 → 在手订单 → 交付与产能利用率 → 回款。装备行业应从客户资本开支追到在手订单、交付和回款。收入确认快于现金回收，或订单增长但产能利用率不升，都要下调质量判断。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "元件：日与周同时承压，行业预期仍在下调",
        "fact": "当日-7.08%、近5日-12.97%、近30日-20.78%，成交额745.09亿元。",
        "meaning": "客户投入 → 订单 → 产能利用率 → 利润。重点核对客户资本开支能否转成订单、产能利用率和毛利率是否同步提升。股价走强只是线索，还不能替代订单兑现。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": {
      "covered": 34,
      "advancing": 7,
      "declining": 27,
      "advanceSharePct": 20.6,
      "median1dPct": -2.9,
      "median5dPct": -2.44,
      "turnoverCoverageYi": 9037.12,
      "positiveTurnoverSharePct": 11.1,
      "topFiveTurnoverSharePct": 55.5,
      "leader": "银行",
      "leaderFamily": "金融地产",
      "laggard": "元件",
      "pressureCenter": "半导体",
      "pressureTurnoverYi": 1922.3,
      "pressureReturn1dPct": -5.54,
      "pressureFamily": "科技硬件",
      "persistentLeaders": [
        "影视院线",
        "保险",
        "银行",
        "白酒",
        "煤炭开采加工"
      ],
      "regime": "下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数",
      "thesis": "下跌面占主导，逆势行业只是少数。7/34个行业上涨，中位数当日-2.90%、近5日-2.44%；持续领先集中在影视院线、保险、银行。成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-5.54%、1922.30亿元），它比单纯的涨跌榜更能说明当前压力落在哪里。"
    },
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "优先看：沪深300相对表现",
        "text": "沪深300当日-1.03%、近20日-10.52%。两个窗口均相对领先，因此作为优先观察方向；相对领先不等于绝对上涨。",
        "condition": "沪深300收复4204.36后，再把整体修复的优先级上调。"
      },
      {
        "title": "银行：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+1.98%、近5日+3.98%、近30日+2.82%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 利率与市场活跃度 → 利差或手续费 → 信用和投资损益 → 净利润。金融行业必须拆开利差、手续费、信用成本和投资收益。成交放大或利率变化只影响部分收入，不能直接推出净利润同向变化。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      },
      {
        "title": "风电设备：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+1.64%、近5日+0.87%、近30日-6.32%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 客户资本开支 → 在手订单 → 交付与产能利用率 → 回款。装备行业应从客户资本开支追到在手订单、交付和回款。收入确认快于现金回收，或订单增长但产能利用率不升，都要下调质量判断。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "上证指数收盘跌破3645.26，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "中证1000相对沪深300单日-2.00个百分点，但20日差值为-7.12个百分点。领先差值若持续收窄，应下调原来的风格优先级。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "偏弱震荡",
        "text": "上证指数收盘仍在3645.26与3750.30之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "上证指数收盘高于3750.30，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "上证指数收盘低于3645.26，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "a",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 3651.43,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-11-26",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-26T15:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.68,
        "invalidation": "2026-11-26收盘若不低于3651.43点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-0.88；当前状态为偏弱震荡。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-11-26），上证指数预计低于3651.43点。",
        "id": "pred-market-494bb548d416f456330d"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "sh000001",
        "name": "上证指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000300",
        "name": "沪深300日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000905",
        "name": "中证500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000852",
        "name": "中证1000日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sz399006",
        "name": "创业板指日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000688",
        "name": "科创50日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "breadth",
        "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
        "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261028/c681183299.shtml"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d",
        "name": "东方财富·两融统计",
        "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPTA_WEB_MARGIN_DAILYTRADE&columns=ALL&pageSize=1000&pageNumber=1&sortColumns=STATISTICS_DATE&sortTypes=-1&filter=%28STATISTICS_DATE%3E%3D%272023-01-01%27%29"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9",
        "name": "全国银行间同业拆借中心",
        "url": "https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/r/cms/www/chinamoney/data/currency/pr-dly-bltn-interbank-mark.json"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef",
        "name": "中债国债收益率曲线：10年期日终值",
        "url": "https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-czb-web/czb/czbChartIndex"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd",
        "name": "国家统计局：9月份制造业采购经理指数",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202609/t20260930_1965449.html"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22",
        "name": "国家统计局：1—9月规模以上工业企业利润累计同比",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261027_1965697.html"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [
      {
        "name": "银行",
        "return1dPct": 1.98,
        "turnoverYi": 394.82,
        "return5dPct": 3.98,
        "return30dPct": 2.82
      },
      {
        "name": "风电设备",
        "return1dPct": 1.64,
        "turnoverYi": 116.69,
        "return5dPct": 0.87,
        "return30dPct": -6.32
      },
      {
        "name": "保险",
        "return1dPct": 1.61,
        "turnoverYi": 94.15,
        "return5dPct": 4.72,
        "return30dPct": -7.58
      },
      {
        "name": "煤炭开采加工",
        "return1dPct": 0.73,
        "turnoverYi": 110.97,
        "return5dPct": 1.53,
        "return30dPct": -11.64
      },
      {
        "name": "公路铁路运输",
        "return1dPct": 0.39,
        "turnoverYi": 49.42,
        "return5dPct": 0.87,
        "return30dPct": -2.02
      },
      {
        "name": "影视院线",
        "return1dPct": 0.35,
        "turnoverYi": 105.39,
        "return5dPct": 5.23,
        "return30dPct": 4.14
      },
      {
        "name": "白酒",
        "return1dPct": 0.04,
        "turnoverYi": 134.53,
        "return5dPct": 1.69,
        "return30dPct": -5.03
      },
      {
        "name": "机场航运",
        "return1dPct": -0.05,
        "turnoverYi": 25.53,
        "return5dPct": 1.4,
        "return30dPct": -6.61
      },
      {
        "name": "旅游及酒店",
        "return1dPct": -0.26,
        "turnoverYi": 28.6,
        "return5dPct": -0.85,
        "return30dPct": -17.93
      },
      {
        "name": "食品加工制造",
        "return1dPct": -0.29,
        "turnoverYi": 88.45,
        "return5dPct": 0.94,
        "return30dPct": -7.28
      },
      {
        "name": "元件",
        "return1dPct": -7.08,
        "turnoverYi": 745.09,
        "return5dPct": -12.97,
        "return30dPct": -20.78
      },
      {
        "name": "通信设备",
        "return1dPct": -5.63,
        "turnoverYi": 1064.77,
        "return5dPct": -7.53,
        "return30dPct": -22.19
      },
      {
        "name": "半导体",
        "return1dPct": -5.54,
        "turnoverYi": 1922.3,
        "return5dPct": -5.79,
        "return30dPct": -20.37
      },
      {
        "name": "自动化设备",
        "return1dPct": -5.17,
        "turnoverYi": 442.24,
        "return5dPct": -0.85,
        "return30dPct": -11.87
      },
      {
        "name": "电机",
        "return1dPct": -5.08,
        "turnoverYi": 105.79,
        "return5dPct": 0.91,
        "return30dPct": -2.67
      },
      {
        "name": "其他电子",
        "return1dPct": -4.93,
        "turnoverYi": 129.21,
        "return5dPct": -5.36,
        "return30dPct": -19.16
      },
      {
        "name": "电子化学品",
        "return1dPct": -4.87,
        "turnoverYi": 191.9,
        "return5dPct": -6.37,
        "return30dPct": -24.75
      },
      {
        "name": "消费电子",
        "return1dPct": -4.78,
        "turnoverYi": 399.93,
        "return5dPct": -3.76,
        "return30dPct": -16.35
      },
      {
        "name": "光学光电子",
        "return1dPct": -4.25,
        "turnoverYi": 325.72,
        "return5dPct": -4.8,
        "return30dPct": -14.63
      },
      {
        "name": "软件开发",
        "return1dPct": -4.11,
        "turnoverYi": 347.93,
        "return5dPct": -3.36,
        "return30dPct": -7.34
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车零部件",
        "return1dPct": -3.8,
        "turnoverYi": 658.0,
        "return5dPct": 0.68,
        "return30dPct": -8.19
      },
      {
        "name": "通用设备",
        "return1dPct": -2.87,
        "turnoverYi": 621.03,
        "return5dPct": -1.15,
        "return30dPct": -11.23
      },
      {
        "name": "电池",
        "return1dPct": -3.95,
        "turnoverYi": 387.57,
        "return5dPct": -2.82,
        "return30dPct": -14.1
      },
      {
        "name": "文化传媒",
        "return1dPct": -2.79,
        "turnoverYi": 348.61,
        "return5dPct": -0.64,
        "return30dPct": -0.18
      },
      {
        "name": "厨卫电器",
        "return1dPct": -3.23,
        "turnoverYi": 12.04,
        "return5dPct": -4.73,
        "return30dPct": -6.38
      },
      {
        "name": "贸易",
        "return1dPct": -0.64,
        "turnoverYi": 12.98,
        "return5dPct": -2.38,
        "return30dPct": -12.81
      },
      {
        "name": "橡胶制品",
        "return1dPct": -2.92,
        "turnoverYi": 13.64,
        "return5dPct": -5.15,
        "return30dPct": -16.49
      },
      {
        "name": "教育",
        "return1dPct": -3.22,
        "turnoverYi": 16.58,
        "return5dPct": -6.17,
        "return30dPct": -18.24
      },
      {
        "name": "造纸",
        "return1dPct": -1.2,
        "turnoverYi": 21.9,
        "return5dPct": -2.55,
        "return30dPct": -12.84
      },
      {
        "name": "环保设备",
        "return1dPct": -3.12,
        "turnoverYi": 23.02,
        "return5dPct": -4.3,
        "return30dPct": -19.21
      },
      {
        "name": "综合",
        "return1dPct": -2.22,
        "turnoverYi": 23.51,
        "return5dPct": -2.73,
        "return30dPct": -13.04
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车服务及其他",
        "return1dPct": -2.63,
        "turnoverYi": 24.68,
        "return5dPct": -1.93,
        "return30dPct": -10.78
      },
      {
        "name": "轨交设备",
        "return1dPct": -1.98,
        "turnoverYi": 24.88,
        "return5dPct": -2.49,
        "return30dPct": -7.44
      },
      {
        "name": "黑色家电",
        "return1dPct": -3.58,
        "turnoverYi": 25.25,
        "return5dPct": -3.22,
        "return30dPct": -9.86
      }
    ],
    "counts": {
      "up": 0,
      "down": 6,
      "aboveMa20": 0,
      "belowMa20": 6,
      "total": 6,
      "weeklyUp": 1
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "上证指数",
      "support": 3645.26,
      "close": 3651.43,
      "ma20": 3750.298,
      "confirmation": 3750.298,
      "toConfirmationPct": 2.7076515228280362,
      "toSupportPct": -0.1689748947672487
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "本期缺少全市场成交额，不对这些维度作归因。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "估值与风险溢价：缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "跨资产验证：本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "deepNarrative": {
      "stance": "rebound",
      "mainCandidateId": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
      "supportingCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-index-participation",
        "judgment-style-persistence"
      ],
      "riskCandidateId": "judgment-price-boundary",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "同一收盘快照上，6/6个指数当日上涨，但0/6近5日上涨、0/6站上20日均线。当日、5日与20日均线来自重叠的价格序列，不能算独立证据，但结构上的错位本身有信息量：单日修复力度可观——中证1000当日上涨2.35%、创业板指上涨3.40%、科创50上涨2.45%，均明显大于沪深300的0.85%——但中期位置仍未改善，属于弱势中的反弹而非转强确认。价格路径只能给出这一结构判断，当日上涨的资金来源与机制未被识别。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-index-participation"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "参与面确认修复覆盖面宽：全市场5489家中4112家上涨、1207家下跌、170家平盘，上涨家数占含平盘样本的74.9%，且6/6指数上涨。这确认当日修复是广基的而非少数指数拉动，但上涨家数与幅度本身不构成资金、利润或折现率机制证据，也不能据此排除权重股与个股参与的任何组合关系。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-style-persistence"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "风格维度出现跨窗口分化：中证1000相对沪深300当日领先1.50个百分点，但近20日仍落后5.08个百分点。当日与20日的相对表现不同向，说明小盘成长的当日领涨尚未在更长期窗口建立风格持续性；两个窗口时间上重叠，不能视为独立确认，也不能据此断定风格已切换。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-price-boundary"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "沪深300收于4083.87，仍低于20日均线4228.13，距本期低点4054.11不远，收盘位于日内区间91%。日内位置只描述当日买卖结果的强弱，不能定义未来空间，也不能确认买盘持续性。这一观测的价值在于给出明确的改判参照：当前价格仍处中期弱势区间内的反弹位置。"
        }
      ],
      "riskText": "上证指数收盘在2026-11-25低于3681.47点时：下调修复判断的置信度。",
      "contextCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "judgment-index-participation",
        "judgment-state-coverage",
        "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "judgment-price-boundary",
        "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "judgment-style-persistence",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-margin-finance",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-dr007",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY"
      ],
      "flowVersion": "market-deep-analysis-3.0",
      "judgmentAsOf": "2026-10-28T15:00:00+08:00",
      "judgmentTradingDate": "2026-10-28",
      "updateMode": "routine",
      "analysisStatus": "stale",
      "explanationRanking": [
        {
          "explanation": "弱势中的广基单日修复假说：当日修复在指数覆盖、参与面与中小成长弹性上均有价格证据支持，但5日与20日窗口全部偏弱，修复尚未改变中期下行结构，是最有支持的解释。",
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "limitation": "当日上涨的资金来源、盈利与折现率机制均未被识别；缺少盈利预测修正、估值与风险溢价、仓位与衍生品数据，无法判断修复的驱动与可持续性。"
        }
      ],
      "judgmentConfidence": 0.6,
      "missingEvidence": [
        "市场一致盈利预测修正记录",
        "时点一致的指数估值与风险溢价组合",
        "基金仓位、融资拥挤度与期权偏度等仓位与衍生品数据",
        "当日可归属的资金流向与南向资金观测"
      ],
      "retainedPredictionIds": [],
      "observation": {
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "thresholdOptionId": "close",
        "direction": "<",
        "consequence": "下调修复判断的置信度。",
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "threshold": 3681.47,
        "dueSession": "2026-11-25",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-25T15:00:00+08:00",
        "unit": "点"
      }
    },
    "analysisStatus": "ready",
    "briefDigest": "066e07705e7e88a69ae7cc24c74eedf62429dd4d0cabff88302fa1d0038d359b"
  }
}