{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-11-03T16:47:33.754728+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-11-03T16:43:20.724080+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-a-2026-11-03-907f79518fbf",
    "articleTitle": "A股市场解读 2026-11-03",
    "articleHref": "/markets/a-share/2026-11-03.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "c035b32224c1e0990d34794eff057761cc81f05d6db83500acb3e79264a47f8d"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-5.0",
    "parentDigest": "097bdec04cfd22fcb8c2c63f95ae9dee3b676389fe9bdd5f8f10f43b702a3dcc",
    "contextDigest": "644ee871bfe148890ed3ddb13885f061a0db0de2309bbed9a15913fabb5f75a2",
    "market": "a",
    "tradingDate": "2026-11-03",
    "targetSession": "2026-11-04",
    "state": "weak",
    "headline": "指数普跌之下消费等行业逆势走强，弱势结构延续但内部出现分化",
    "verdict": "偏弱震荡",
    "label": "防守",
    "thesis": "0/6指数上涨、0/6站上20日均线且0/6近5日上涨，中期弱势结构延续；但白酒、影视院线等防御类行业五日持续领先、成交最活跃的下跌行业为半导体，弱势内部出现行业相对表现的分化，这一分化尚不足以改变弱势框架，却是未来改判最值得观察的信号。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "sector-profit-map",
      "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
      "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
      "fact": "14/33个行业上涨；持续领先为白酒、影视院线、机场航运、游戏、保险，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-5.09%、1977.52亿元）。",
      "meaning": "结论：金融地产相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调金融地产研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 8,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "breadth"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 8,
      "availableDimensionCount": 3,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "sector-profit-map",
        "state-coverage",
        "historical-five-day",
        "price-implied-pricing"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.00%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第88分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 88,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线已过热，继续追涨的优先级下调，先防5日涨幅回吐；该分位只定义短期位置。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "price-implied-pricing",
      "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
      "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
      "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.00%、近20日-7.74%；5日变化处于短样本第88分位。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
        "sampleSize": 16,
        "percentile": 88,
        "status": "partial"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：短线上涨已过热，降低追涨优先级；盈利、流动性或风险偏好出现新增证据前，不上调强势判断。",
      "causalRole": "预期计入",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "sh000300"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-11-03",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 6,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": false
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "14/33个行业上涨；持续领先为白酒、影视院线、机场航运、游戏、保险，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-5.09%、1977.52亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：金融地产相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调金融地产研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "价格与成交不能证明利润迁移；需核对同报告期的售价、销量、单位成本、利润率与经营现金流。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.00%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第88分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 88,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线已过热，继续追涨的优先级下调，先防5日涨幅回吐；该分位只定义短期位置。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏弱，维持弱势判断，站回20日均线再改判。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨；2065家上涨、3279家下跌、146家平盘，共5490家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场37.6%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.00%、近20日-7.74%；5日变化处于短样本第88分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 88,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线上涨已过热，降低追涨优先级；盈利、流动性或风险偏好出现新增证据前，不上调强势判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4008.87，20日均线4148.67，本期低点3969.55；收盘位于日内区间63%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：收盘未取得趋势位置支持，先按弱势结构处理。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4148.67或跌破3969.55，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日-1.51个百分点、近20日-7.33个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "14/33个行业上涨；持续领先为白酒、影视院线、机场航运、游戏、保险，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-5.09%、1977.52亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "breadth",
            "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
            "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261103/c681400749.shtml"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.00%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第88分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 88,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨；2065家上涨、3279家下跌、146家平盘，共5490家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场37.6%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "breadth",
            "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
            "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261103/c681400749.shtml"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.00%、近20日-7.74%；5日变化处于短样本第88分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 88,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4008.87，20日均线4148.67，本期低点3969.55；收盘位于日内区间63%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日-1.51个百分点、近20日-7.33个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-margin-finance",
        "dimension": "positioning_flows",
        "title": "融资余额的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "融资余额在2026-11-02为23026.47410051亿元；较2026-10-30变化-126.29174314亿元（相对变化-0.55%）。该观测于2026-11-03T08:41:03.671474+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 926,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "交易参与和杠杆位置",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 3,
          "sourceQuality": 1,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:margin-finance",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d",
            "name": "东方财富·两融统计",
            "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPTA_WEB_MARGIN_DAILYTRADE&columns=ALL&pageSize=1000&pageNumber=1&sortColumns=STATISTICS_DATE&sortTypes=-1&filter=%28STATISTICS_DATE%3E%3D%272023-01-01%27%29",
            "type": "vendor"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-02",
          "knownAt": "2026-11-03T08:41:03.671474+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-dr007",
        "dimension": "funding_liquidity",
        "title": "存款类机构7天质押式回购加权利率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "存款类机构7天质押式回购加权利率在2026-11-02为1.3635%；较2026-10-30变化-0.0263个百分点（相对变化-1.89%）。该观测于2026-11-02T22:38:14.067080+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 22,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "资金价格与可用流动性",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:dr007",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9",
            "name": "全国银行间同业拆借中心",
            "url": "https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/r/cms/www/chinamoney/data/currency/pr-dly-bltn-interbank-mark.json",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-02",
          "knownAt": "2026-11-02T22:38:14.067080+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y",
        "dimension": "valuation_rates",
        "title": "中国10年期国债收益率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "中国10年期国债收益率在2026-11-02为1.6343%；较2026-10-30变化-0.0157个百分点（相对变化-0.95%）。该观测于2026-11-02T19:52:00.550841+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 2548,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "汇率与折现率",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-fx-rates:china10y",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef",
            "name": "中债国债收益率曲线：10年期日终值",
            "url": "https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-czb-web/czb/czbChartIndex",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-02",
          "knownAt": "2026-11-02T19:52:00.550841+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "dimension": "real_economy",
        "title": "制造业PMI的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "制造业PMI在2026-10-31为49.3点；较2026-09-30变化-0.8点（相对变化-1.60%）。该观测于2026-10-31T10:07:26.588163+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 123,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "订单、生产与需求",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-200ec32cb6"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-orders:manufacturingPmi",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-200ec32cb6",
            "name": "国家统计局：10月份制造业采购经理指数",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261031_1965718.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-31",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-31T10:07:26.588163+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY",
        "dimension": "profit_cash",
        "title": "工业利润累计同比的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "工业利润累计同比在2026-09-30为15.5%；较2026-08-31变化-0.2个百分点（相对变化-1.27%）。该观测于2026-10-27T10:07:24.989426+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 3,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "利润、库存与回款",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-profits:industrialProfitsYtdYoY",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22",
            "name": "国家统计局：1—9月规模以上工业企业利润累计同比",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261027_1965697.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-27T10:07:24.989426+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      }
    ],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "行业价格和成交只确认相对表现；利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本、利润率与现金流证据。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "0/6个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有0/6个。沪深300近20日-7.74%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "中证1000相对沪深300：当日-1.51个百分点，近20日-7.33个百分点。",
        "meaning": "短期与20日均落后，相对弱势没有改善，反弹弹性还不是领先证据。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "上证指数收于3608.10，位于日内区间的63%位置；距20日均线-2.89%。",
        "meaning": "收盘没有收复均线，盘中回升尚不足以推翻主判断。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "个股参与面",
        "fact": "2065家上涨、3279家下跌、146家持平；下跌占59.7%。",
        "meaning": "上涨家数未超过半数，参与面还不足以支持全面行情。",
        "role": "参与证据",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：全面反转已开始",
      "text": "反对理由：6/6个指数仍低于20日均线，近5日上涨的有0个。即使局部反弹，也不足以覆盖这组趋势证据。"
    },
    "macro": [],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "保险：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+2.66%、近5日+3.77%、近30日-4.29%，成交额108.23亿元。",
        "meaning": "利率与市场活跃度 → 利差或手续费 → 信用和投资损益 → 净利润。金融行业必须拆开利差、手续费、信用成本和投资收益。成交放大或利率变化只影响部分收入，不能直接推出净利润同向变化。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "机场航运：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+2.01%、近5日+5.16%、近30日+1.18%，成交额55.60亿元。",
        "meaning": "货量与运价 → 收入 → 周转和履约成本 → 现金回款。贸易运输链要同时核对货量、运价、库存或履约成本和应收周转；收入放大但回款变慢时，增长质量应下调。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "元件：日与周同时承压，行业预期仍在下调",
        "fact": "当日-5.13%、近5日-9.37%、近30日-30.88%，成交额879.34亿元。",
        "meaning": "客户投入 → 订单 → 产能利用率 → 利润。重点核对客户资本开支能否转成订单、产能利用率和毛利率是否同步提升。股价走强只是线索，还不能替代订单兑现。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": {
      "covered": 33,
      "advancing": 14,
      "declining": 19,
      "advanceSharePct": 42.4,
      "median1dPct": -0.29,
      "median5dPct": -1.79,
      "turnoverCoverageYi": 9552.55,
      "positiveTurnoverSharePct": 16.9,
      "topFiveTurnoverSharePct": 53.0,
      "leader": "保险",
      "leaderFamily": "金融地产",
      "laggard": "元件",
      "pressureCenter": "半导体",
      "pressureTurnoverYi": 1977.52,
      "pressureReturn1dPct": -5.09,
      "pressureFamily": "科技硬件",
      "persistentLeaders": [
        "白酒",
        "影视院线",
        "机场航运",
        "游戏",
        "保险"
      ],
      "regime": "行业涨跌分化，尚未形成普遍方向",
      "thesis": "行业涨跌分化，尚未形成普遍方向。14/33个行业上涨，中位数当日-0.29%、近5日-1.79%；持续领先集中在白酒、影视院线、机场航运。成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-5.09%、1977.52亿元），它比单纯的涨跌榜更能说明当前压力落在哪里。"
    },
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "优先看：沪深300相对表现",
        "text": "沪深300当日-0.20%、近20日-7.74%。两个窗口均相对领先，因此作为优先观察方向；相对领先不等于绝对上涨。",
        "condition": "沪深300收复4148.67后，再把整体修复的优先级上调。"
      },
      {
        "title": "保险：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+2.66%、近5日+3.77%、近30日-4.29%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 利率与市场活跃度 → 利差或手续费 → 信用和投资损益 → 净利润。金融行业必须拆开利差、手续费、信用成本和投资收益。成交放大或利率变化只影响部分收入，不能直接推出净利润同向变化。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      },
      {
        "title": "机场航运：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+2.01%、近5日+5.16%、近30日+1.18%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 货量与运价 → 收入 → 周转和履约成本 → 现金回款。贸易运输链要同时核对货量、运价、库存或履约成本和应收周转；收入放大但回款变慢时，增长质量应下调。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "上证指数收盘跌破3580.38，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "中证1000相对沪深300单日-1.51个百分点，但20日差值为-7.33个百分点。领先差值若持续收窄，应下调原来的风格优先级。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "偏弱震荡",
        "text": "上证指数收盘仍在3580.38与3715.43之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "上证指数收盘高于3715.43，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "上证指数收盘低于3580.38，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "a",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 3608.1,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-12-01",
        "dueAt": "2026-12-01T15:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.7,
        "invalidation": "2026-12-01收盘若不低于3608.10点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-1.00；当前状态为偏弱震荡。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-12-01），上证指数预计低于3608.10点。",
        "id": "pred-market-c92568066de2144f79c2"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "sh000001",
        "name": "上证指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000300",
        "name": "沪深300日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000905",
        "name": "中证500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000852",
        "name": "中证1000日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sz399006",
        "name": "创业板指日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000688",
        "name": "科创50日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "breadth",
        "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
        "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261103/c681400749.shtml"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d",
        "name": "东方财富·两融统计",
        "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPTA_WEB_MARGIN_DAILYTRADE&columns=ALL&pageSize=1000&pageNumber=1&sortColumns=STATISTICS_DATE&sortTypes=-1&filter=%28STATISTICS_DATE%3E%3D%272023-01-01%27%29"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9",
        "name": "全国银行间同业拆借中心",
        "url": "https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/r/cms/www/chinamoney/data/currency/pr-dly-bltn-interbank-mark.json"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef",
        "name": "中债国债收益率曲线：10年期日终值",
        "url": "https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-czb-web/czb/czbChartIndex"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-200ec32cb6",
        "name": "国家统计局：10月份制造业采购经理指数",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261031_1965718.html"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22",
        "name": "国家统计局：1—9月规模以上工业企业利润累计同比",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261027_1965697.html"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [
      {
        "name": "保险",
        "return1dPct": 2.66,
        "turnoverYi": 108.23,
        "return5dPct": 3.77,
        "return30dPct": -4.29
      },
      {
        "name": "机场航运",
        "return1dPct": 2.01,
        "turnoverYi": 55.6,
        "return5dPct": 5.16,
        "return30dPct": 1.18
      },
      {
        "name": "养殖业",
        "return1dPct": 1.89,
        "turnoverYi": 79.04,
        "return5dPct": 0.95,
        "return30dPct": -8.88
      },
      {
        "name": "贸易",
        "return1dPct": 1.81,
        "turnoverYi": 17.28,
        "return5dPct": 1.5,
        "return30dPct": -7.11
      },
      {
        "name": "电池",
        "return1dPct": 1.64,
        "turnoverYi": 581.2,
        "return5dPct": -0.77,
        "return30dPct": -10.77
      },
      {
        "name": "白酒",
        "return1dPct": 1.57,
        "turnoverYi": 230.66,
        "return5dPct": 9.62,
        "return30dPct": 12.05
      },
      {
        "name": "游戏",
        "return1dPct": 1.45,
        "turnoverYi": 157.94,
        "return5dPct": 4.41,
        "return30dPct": 2.88
      },
      {
        "name": "影视院线",
        "return1dPct": 1.44,
        "turnoverYi": 150.58,
        "return5dPct": 7.11,
        "return30dPct": 9.38
      },
      {
        "name": "农产品加工",
        "return1dPct": 1.36,
        "turnoverYi": 78.29,
        "return5dPct": 0.82,
        "return30dPct": -7.46
      },
      {
        "name": "钢铁",
        "return1dPct": 1.33,
        "turnoverYi": 60.68,
        "return5dPct": -0.44,
        "return30dPct": -9.3
      },
      {
        "name": "元件",
        "return1dPct": -5.13,
        "turnoverYi": 879.34,
        "return5dPct": -9.37,
        "return30dPct": -30.88
      },
      {
        "name": "半导体",
        "return1dPct": -5.09,
        "turnoverYi": 1977.52,
        "return5dPct": -8.66,
        "return30dPct": -24.9
      },
      {
        "name": "电子化学品",
        "return1dPct": -5.05,
        "turnoverYi": 207.86,
        "return5dPct": -7.07,
        "return30dPct": -29.48
      },
      {
        "name": "通信设备",
        "return1dPct": -4.53,
        "turnoverYi": 1106.66,
        "return5dPct": -10.32,
        "return30dPct": -27.05
      },
      {
        "name": "自动化设备",
        "return1dPct": -4.0,
        "turnoverYi": 373.41,
        "return5dPct": -6.59,
        "return30dPct": -15.08
      },
      {
        "name": "医疗服务",
        "return1dPct": -3.57,
        "turnoverYi": 292.48,
        "return5dPct": 2.0,
        "return30dPct": -5.61
      },
      {
        "name": "通用设备",
        "return1dPct": -2.93,
        "turnoverYi": 517.04,
        "return5dPct": -4.19,
        "return30dPct": -12.69
      },
      {
        "name": "其他电子",
        "return1dPct": -2.88,
        "turnoverYi": 114.33,
        "return5dPct": -6.12,
        "return30dPct": -22.85
      },
      {
        "name": "消费电子",
        "return1dPct": -2.58,
        "turnoverYi": 361.25,
        "return5dPct": -5.6,
        "return30dPct": -18.08
      },
      {
        "name": "塑料制品",
        "return1dPct": -2.38,
        "turnoverYi": 188.89,
        "return5dPct": -4.82,
        "return30dPct": -14.59
      },
      {
        "name": "银行",
        "return1dPct": -0.44,
        "turnoverYi": 517.43,
        "return5dPct": 1.09,
        "return30dPct": 1.03
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车零部件",
        "return1dPct": -1.51,
        "turnoverYi": 475.44,
        "return5dPct": -3.93,
        "return30dPct": -8.29
      },
      {
        "name": "文化传媒",
        "return1dPct": -0.56,
        "turnoverYi": 429.31,
        "return5dPct": 0.17,
        "return30dPct": 3.69
      },
      {
        "name": "软件开发",
        "return1dPct": -2.12,
        "turnoverYi": 377.14,
        "return5dPct": -5.33,
        "return30dPct": -7.54
      },
      {
        "name": "厨卫电器",
        "return1dPct": 0.08,
        "turnoverYi": 13.09,
        "return5dPct": -3.33,
        "return30dPct": -6.78
      },
      {
        "name": "橡胶制品",
        "return1dPct": -1.02,
        "turnoverYi": 16.51,
        "return5dPct": -4.69,
        "return30dPct": -16.02
      },
      {
        "name": "黑色家电",
        "return1dPct": 0.23,
        "turnoverYi": 23.01,
        "return5dPct": -1.79,
        "return30dPct": -9.14
      },
      {
        "name": "造纸",
        "return1dPct": -0.29,
        "turnoverYi": 23.52,
        "return5dPct": -2.11,
        "return30dPct": -11.58
      },
      {
        "name": "燃气",
        "return1dPct": -0.2,
        "turnoverYi": 24.81,
        "return5dPct": -2.21,
        "return30dPct": -11.11
      },
      {
        "name": "环保设备",
        "return1dPct": -1.6,
        "turnoverYi": 25.76,
        "return5dPct": -3.51,
        "return30dPct": -18.54
      },
      {
        "name": "教育",
        "return1dPct": 0.35,
        "turnoverYi": 28.86,
        "return5dPct": 0.52,
        "return30dPct": -11.65
      },
      {
        "name": "纺织制造",
        "return1dPct": -0.1,
        "turnoverYi": 29.53,
        "return5dPct": -1.71,
        "return30dPct": -6.17
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车服务及其他",
        "return1dPct": 1.08,
        "turnoverYi": 29.86,
        "return5dPct": -0.79,
        "return30dPct": -8.99
      }
    ],
    "counts": {
      "up": 0,
      "down": 6,
      "aboveMa20": 0,
      "belowMa20": 6,
      "total": 6,
      "weeklyUp": 0
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "上证指数",
      "support": 3580.38,
      "close": 3608.1,
      "ma20": 3715.4335,
      "confirmation": 3715.4335,
      "toConfirmationPct": 2.9747928272497948,
      "toSupportPct": -0.7682713893738979
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "本期缺少全市场成交额，不对这些维度作归因。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "估值与风险溢价：缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "跨资产验证：本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "deepNarrative": {
      "stance": "weak",
      "mainCandidateId": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
      "supportingCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "judgment-style-persistence"
      ],
      "riskCandidateId": "judgment-style-persistence",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "同一收盘快照上，0/6个指数当日上涨、0/6近5日上涨、0/6站上20日均线。三个窗口来自重叠价格序列，不能算独立证据，但方向一致表明上一交易日之后市场没有出现任何可确认的修复。跌幅大体沿成长度递增：上证指数-0.82%、沪深300-0.20%，而中证1000为-1.71%、创业板指为-2.73%、科创50为-3.81%；市值维度上上证指数跌幅大于沪深300，单日数据不支持跌幅沿市值单调递增，价格结构继续支持弱势框架而非反弹框架。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-sector-profit-map"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "弱势内部出现明显分化：14/33个行业上涨，持续领先的是白酒、影视院线、机场航运、游戏、保险，而成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体，单日-5.09%、成交1977.52亿元。价格与成交只能确认相对表现，利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本与利润率证据；但防御与消费类行业五日持续领先、高成交集中于领跌的半导体，说明本轮下跌并非无差别抛售，弱势的内部结构比指数面显示的更有层次。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-style-persistence"
          ],
          "claimType": "hypothesis",
          "text": "风格维度上，中证1000相对沪深300当日落后1.51个百分点、近20日落后7.33个百分点，小盘相对大盘的弱势在单日与中期两个窗口方向一致。交叉核对支持小盘承压是持续性特征而非单日波动的假说；但相对收益本身不能识别驱动，也无法据此推断小盘弱势还会延续。"
        }
      ],
      "riskText": "上证指数收盘在2026-12-01低于3608.10点时：提高弱势判断的置信度。",
      "contextCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "judgment-state-coverage",
        "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "judgment-index-participation",
        "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "judgment-price-boundary",
        "judgment-style-persistence",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-margin-finance",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-dr007",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY"
      ],
      "flowVersion": "market-deep-analysis-3.0",
      "judgmentAsOf": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
      "judgmentTradingDate": "2026-11-03",
      "updateMode": "model",
      "analysisStatus": "current",
      "explanationRanking": [
        {
          "explanation": "中期弱势延续、内部向防御消费切换的假说：三窗口价格结构全面偏弱、小盘成长持续跑输，同时白酒、影视院线等行业五日持续领先，弱势框架仍比反弹框架更受价格证据支持。",
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "limitation": "下跌的资金来源、盈利修正与折现率驱动均未被识别；行业分化只确认价格相对表现，不能证明利润迁移或资金流向。"
        }
      ],
      "judgmentConfidence": 0.65,
      "missingEvidence": [
        "市场一致盈利预测修正记录",
        "时点一致的指数估值与风险溢价组合",
        "基金仓位、融资拥挤度与期权偏度等仓位与衍生品数据",
        "当日可归属的资金流向观测"
      ],
      "retainedPredictionIds": [],
      "observation": {
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "thresholdOptionId": "close",
        "direction": "<",
        "consequence": "提高弱势判断的置信度。",
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "threshold": 3608.1,
        "dueSession": "2026-12-01",
        "dueAt": "2026-12-01T15:00:00+08:00",
        "unit": "点"
      }
    },
    "analysisStatus": "ready",
    "briefDigest": "96d91f8e907bf85109a06e1669cbe69c8c52db43e9c5e84f0829df355c3eb830"
  }
}