{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-11-05T17:08:54.510522+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-11-05T17:07:31.065746+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-a-2026-11-05-0c297f4243a3",
    "articleTitle": "A股市场解读 2026-11-05",
    "articleHref": "/markets/a-share/2026-11-05.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "f691b613cf76e359e93bfd8330b93d963f86243604c18a5c1bcaa5538f0ef017"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-5.0",
    "parentDigest": "05d856660354e7e82422723e2846b7e79c2a11c4385dd11fe8b35612c5428a5e",
    "contextDigest": "86b31542a0bbe1787985324b14448a231381c44a96a0258f784335fe47491e01",
    "market": "a",
    "tradingDate": "2026-11-05",
    "targetSession": "2026-11-06",
    "state": "rebound",
    "headline": "指数普跌之下消费等行业逆势走强，弱势结构延续但内部出现分化",
    "verdict": "反弹修复",
    "label": "修复",
    "thesis": "0/6指数上涨、0/6站上20日均线且0/6近5日上涨，中期弱势结构延续；但白酒、影视院线等防御类行业五日持续领先、成交最活跃的下跌行业为半导体，弱势内部出现行业相对表现的分化，这一分化尚不足以改变弱势框架，却是未来改判最值得观察的信号。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "sector-profit-map",
      "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
      "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
      "fact": "29/35个行业上涨；持续领先为光伏设备、影视院线、电池、贵金属、能源金属，成交最活跃的下跌行业是元件（-0.36%、1035.23亿元）。",
      "meaning": "结论：工业运输相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调工业运输研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 9,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 3,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常3/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 9/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "breadth"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 8,
      "availableDimensionCount": 3,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "sector-profit-map",
        "horizon-alignment",
        "state-coverage",
        "index-participation"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，6/6个近5日上涨，2/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：中期结构仍偏弱，窗口分化先按弱势反弹处理；只有站上20日均线的指数超过半数才改判为转强。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，2/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当日上涨覆盖扩大，但趋势位置尚未同步修复。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "index-participation",
      "dimension": "participation",
      "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
      "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨；4805家上涨、613家下跌、73家平盘，共5491家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场87.5%。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
        "sampleSize": null,
        "percentile": null,
        "status": "available"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
      "causalRole": "参与范围",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "breadth",
        "sh000001",
        "sh000300",
        "sh000905",
        "sh000852",
        "sz399006",
        "sh000688"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-11-05",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 8,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": true
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "29/35个行业上涨；持续领先为光伏设备、影视院线、电池、贵金属、能源金属，成交最活跃的下跌行业是元件（-0.36%、1035.23亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：工业运输相对科技硬件占优，下一阶段上调工业运输研究优先级、下调科技硬件；这只是市场表现排序，盈利解释需要独立的同期经营证据。",
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "价格与成交不能证明利润迁移；需核对同报告期的售价、销量、单位成本、利润率与经营现金流。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 9,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 3,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常3/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 9/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨；4805家上涨、613家下跌、73家平盘，共5491家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场87.5%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：指数与个股参与面方向一致，但不能据此排除权重股对指数涨跌的贡献。",
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日个股参与面转向，指数与广度的当前关系即失效。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，6/6个近5日上涨，2/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：中期结构仍偏弱，窗口分化先按弱势反弹处理；只有站上20日均线的指数超过半数才改判为转强。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "6/6个指数上涨，2/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当日上涨覆盖扩大，但趋势位置尚未同步修复。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日+1.77%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第94分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 94,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线已过热，继续追涨的优先级下调，先防5日涨幅回吐；该分位只定义短期位置。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4113.41，20日均线4126.01，本期低点4065.72；收盘位于日内区间79%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：反弹已经发生，但站稳均线前不升级为趋势反转。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "沪深300收盘若突破4136.80或跌破4065.72，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日+1.77%、近20日-4.57%；5日变化处于短样本第94分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 94,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线上涨已过热，降低追涨优先级；盈利、流动性或风险偏好出现新增证据前，不上调强势判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日+1.83个百分点、近20日-2.27个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向相反，单日轮动还不能升级为持续主线。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-05",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-05T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "title": "行业相对表现与交易活跃度分化",
        "observedFact": "14/33个行业上涨；持续领先为白酒、影视院线、机场航运、游戏、保险，成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体（-5.09%、1977.52亿元）。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同日行业涨跌、5日持续性与成交额",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "行业价格表现",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 8,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 8/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "breadth",
            "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
            "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261103/c681400749.shtml"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.00%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第88分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 88,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨，0/6个近5日上涨，0/6个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-index-participation",
        "dimension": "participation",
        "title": "指数方向与个股参与面相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/6个指数上涨；2065家上涨、3279家下跌、146家平盘，共5490家，上涨家数占包含平盘的全市场37.6%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘日的指数覆盖与全市场涨跌家数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "参与范围",
        "sources": [
          "breadth",
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "breadth",
            "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
            "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261103/c681400749.shtml"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000001",
            "name": "上证指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000905",
            "name": "中证500日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sz399006",
            "name": "创业板指日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000688",
            "name": "科创50日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "沪深300近5日-1.00%、近20日-7.74%；5日变化处于短样本第88分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 88,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "沪深300收于4008.87，20日均线4148.67，本期低点3969.55；收盘位于日内区间63%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "sources": [
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "中证1000相对沪深300当日-1.51个百分点、近20日-7.33个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-03",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "sh000852",
            "name": "中证1000日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "sh000300",
            "name": "沪深300日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-margin-finance",
        "dimension": "positioning_flows",
        "title": "融资余额的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "融资余额在2026-11-02为23026.47410051亿元；较2026-10-30变化-126.29174314亿元（相对变化-0.55%）。该观测于2026-11-03T08:41:03.671474+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 926,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "交易参与和杠杆位置",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 3,
          "sourceQuality": 1,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:margin-finance",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d",
            "name": "东方财富·两融统计",
            "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPTA_WEB_MARGIN_DAILYTRADE&columns=ALL&pageSize=1000&pageNumber=1&sortColumns=STATISTICS_DATE&sortTypes=-1&filter=%28STATISTICS_DATE%3E%3D%272023-01-01%27%29",
            "type": "vendor"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-02",
          "knownAt": "2026-11-03T08:41:03.671474+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-feed-dr007",
        "dimension": "funding_liquidity",
        "title": "存款类机构7天质押式回购加权利率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "存款类机构7天质押式回购加权利率在2026-11-02为1.3635%；较2026-10-30变化-0.0263个百分点（相对变化-1.89%）。该观测于2026-11-02T22:38:14.067080+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 22,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "资金价格与可用流动性",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:dr007",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9",
            "name": "全国银行间同业拆借中心",
            "url": "https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/r/cms/www/chinamoney/data/currency/pr-dly-bltn-interbank-mark.json",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-02",
          "knownAt": "2026-11-02T22:38:14.067080+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y",
        "dimension": "valuation_rates",
        "title": "中国10年期国债收益率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "中国10年期国债收益率在2026-11-02为1.6343%；较2026-10-30变化-0.0157个百分点（相对变化-0.95%）。该观测于2026-11-02T19:52:00.550841+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 2548,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "汇率与折现率",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-fx-rates:china10y",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef",
            "name": "中债国债收益率曲线：10年期日终值",
            "url": "https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-czb-web/czb/czbChartIndex",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-11-02",
          "knownAt": "2026-11-02T19:52:00.550841+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "dimension": "real_economy",
        "title": "制造业PMI的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "制造业PMI在2026-10-31为49.3点；较2026-09-30变化-0.8点（相对变化-1.60%）。该观测于2026-10-31T10:07:26.588163+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 123,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "订单、生产与需求",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-200ec32cb6"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-orders:manufacturingPmi",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-200ec32cb6",
            "name": "国家统计局：10月份制造业采购经理指数",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261031_1965718.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-31",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-31T10:07:26.588163+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY",
        "dimension": "profit_cash",
        "title": "工业利润累计同比的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "工业利润累计同比在2026-09-30为15.5%；较2026-08-31变化-0.2个百分点（相对变化-1.27%）。该观测于2026-10-27T10:07:24.989426+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 3,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "利润、库存与回款",
        "sources": [
          "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-profits:industrialProfitsYtdYoY",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22",
            "name": "国家统计局：1—9月规模以上工业企业利润累计同比",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261027_1965697.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-27T10:07:24.989426+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      }
    ],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "行业价格和成交只确认相对表现；利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本、利润率与现金流证据。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "2/6个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有6/6个。沪深300近20日-4.57%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001",
          "sh000300",
          "sh000905",
          "sh000852",
          "sz399006",
          "sh000688"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "中证1000相对沪深300：当日+1.83个百分点，近20日-2.27个百分点。",
        "meaning": "当天领先、20日仍落后，属于相对强弱的短线修复，尚非持续领先。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000852",
          "sh000300"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "上证指数收于3689.91，位于日内区间的79%位置；距20日均线-0.31%。",
        "meaning": "收近高点，说明盘中低位承接较强；但均线尚未收复，因此提高反弹评价，不上调为趋势反转。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "sh000001"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "个股参与面",
        "fact": "4805家上涨、613家下跌、73家持平；下跌占11.2%。",
        "meaning": "上涨家数超过半数，修复并非只体现在少数指数。",
        "role": "参与证据",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：新上升趋势已确认",
      "text": "反对理由：上涨的有6个，站上20日均线的只有2个。日内反弹证据已经出现，中期确认仍落后。"
    },
    "macro": [],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "光伏设备：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+8.02%、近5日+13.48%、近30日+0.86%，成交额561.55亿元。",
        "meaning": "客户资本开支 → 在手订单 → 交付与产能利用率 → 回款。装备行业应从客户资本开支追到在手订单、交付和回款。收入确认快于现金回收，或订单增长但产能利用率不升，都要下调质量判断。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "贵金属：日与周同向，市场正在交易持续改善预期",
        "fact": "当日+4.95%、近5日+8.82%、近30日-20.07%，成交额350.23亿元。",
        "meaning": "实际利率与金价 → 矿产收入 → 成本差 → 利润。金矿企业的机会取决于金价减开采成本后的利润，而非金价本身；还要核对产量、汇率和套保。贵金属股票不等同于黄金现货。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "煤炭开采加工：日与周同时承压，行业预期仍在下调",
        "fact": "当日-1.38%、近5日-2.72%、近30日-8.71%，成交额159.34亿元。",
        "meaning": "商品价格与产量 → 单位收入 → 成本差 → 自由现金流。资源行业要把商品价格、产量、单位成本和资本开支放在一起看。价格上涨只有转成成本差和自由现金流，才可能支持利润与分红。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "breadth"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": {
      "covered": 35,
      "advancing": 29,
      "declining": 6,
      "advanceSharePct": 82.9,
      "median1dPct": 2.1,
      "median5dPct": 2.81,
      "turnoverCoverageYi": 12368.0,
      "positiveTurnoverSharePct": 83.8,
      "topFiveTurnoverSharePct": 55.4,
      "leader": "光伏设备",
      "leaderFamily": "工业运输",
      "laggard": "煤炭开采加工",
      "pressureCenter": "元件",
      "pressureTurnoverYi": 1035.23,
      "pressureReturn1dPct": -0.36,
      "pressureFamily": "科技硬件",
      "persistentLeaders": [
        "光伏设备",
        "影视院线",
        "电池",
        "贵金属",
        "能源金属"
      ],
      "regime": "上涨面占主导，强势不只集中在头部",
      "thesis": "上涨面占主导，强势不只集中在头部。29/35个行业上涨，中位数当日+2.10%、近5日+2.81%；持续领先集中在光伏设备、影视院线、电池。成交最活跃的下跌行业是元件（-0.36%、1035.23亿元），它比单纯的涨跌榜更能说明当前压力落在哪里。"
    },
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "先看轮动能否变成持续领先",
        "text": "中证1000与沪深300的单日、20日强弱未形成一致结论。本期不选定持续主线，保留两者对照。",
        "condition": "沪深300收复4126.01后，再把整体修复的优先级上调。"
      },
      {
        "title": "光伏设备：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+8.02%、近5日+13.48%、近30日+0.86%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 客户资本开支 → 在手订单 → 交付与产能利用率 → 回款。装备行业应从客户资本开支追到在手订单、交付和回款。收入确认快于现金回收，或订单增长但产能利用率不升，都要下调质量判断。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      },
      {
        "title": "贵金属：持续领先",
        "text": "当日+4.95%、近5日+8.82%、近30日-20.07%。日与周方向一致，优先级高于只涨一天的行业。 实际利率与金价 → 矿产收入 → 成本差 → 利润。金矿企业的机会取决于金价减开采成本后的利润，而非金价本身；还要核对产量、汇率和套保。贵金属股票不等同于黄金现货。",
        "condition": "下一交易日行业收益高于沪深300，才保留相对领先评价。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "上证指数收盘跌破3646.57，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "中证1000相对沪深300单日+1.83个百分点，但20日差值为-2.27个百分点。两个窗口方向不同，把单日赢家当成持续主线是本期主要风险。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "反弹修复",
        "text": "上证指数收盘仍在3646.57与3701.59之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "上证指数收盘高于3701.59，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "上证指数收盘低于3646.57，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "a",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "direction": ">=",
        "threshold": 3689.91,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-12-03",
        "dueAt": "2026-12-03T15:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.6,
        "invalidation": "2026-12-03收盘若低于3689.91点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为+0.40；当前状态为反弹修复。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-12-03），上证指数预计不低于3689.91点。",
        "id": "pred-market-792646f16f72557134dd"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "sh000001",
        "name": "上证指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000001,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000300",
        "name": "沪深300日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000300,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000905",
        "name": "中证500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000905,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000852",
        "name": "中证1000日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000852,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sz399006",
        "name": "创业板指日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sz399006,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "sh000688",
        "name": "科创50日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=sh000688,day,,,300,qfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "breadth",
        "name": "同花顺每日行情复盘",
        "url": "https://news.10jqka.com.cn/20261103/c681400749.shtml"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-margin-finance-source-bb55475e4d",
        "name": "东方财富·两融统计",
        "url": "https://datacenter-web.eastmoney.com/api/data/v1/get?reportName=RPTA_WEB_MARGIN_DAILYTRADE&columns=ALL&pageSize=1000&pageNumber=1&sortColumns=STATISTICS_DATE&sortTypes=-1&filter=%28STATISTICS_DATE%3E%3D%272023-01-01%27%29"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-feed-dr007-source-670b6441a9",
        "name": "全国银行间同业拆借中心",
        "url": "https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/r/cms/www/chinamoney/data/currency/pr-dly-bltn-interbank-mark.json"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y-source-81d01585ef",
        "name": "中债国债收益率曲线：10年期日终值",
        "url": "https://yield.chinabond.com.cn/cbweb-czb-web/czb/czbChartIndex"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-200ec32cb6",
        "name": "国家统计局：10月份制造业采购经理指数",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261031_1965718.html"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY-source-88a4947b22",
        "name": "国家统计局：1—9月规模以上工业企业利润累计同比",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261027_1965697.html"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [
      {
        "name": "光伏设备",
        "return1dPct": 8.02,
        "turnoverYi": 561.55,
        "return5dPct": 13.48,
        "return30dPct": 0.86
      },
      {
        "name": "贵金属",
        "return1dPct": 4.95,
        "turnoverYi": 350.23,
        "return5dPct": 8.82,
        "return30dPct": -20.07
      },
      {
        "name": "影视院线",
        "return1dPct": 4.57,
        "turnoverYi": 174.86,
        "return5dPct": 9.94,
        "return30dPct": 19.52
      },
      {
        "name": "能源金属",
        "return1dPct": 4.27,
        "turnoverYi": 159.15,
        "return5dPct": 8.36,
        "return30dPct": -16.87
      },
      {
        "name": "文化传媒",
        "return1dPct": 4.21,
        "turnoverYi": 594.69,
        "return5dPct": 8.05,
        "return30dPct": 11.95
      },
      {
        "name": "互联网电商",
        "return1dPct": 4.21,
        "turnoverYi": 58.7,
        "return5dPct": 5.32,
        "return30dPct": -3.82
      },
      {
        "name": "通信服务",
        "return1dPct": 3.96,
        "turnoverYi": 162.58,
        "return5dPct": 2.95,
        "return30dPct": -7.67
      },
      {
        "name": "电池",
        "return1dPct": 3.78,
        "turnoverYi": 842.53,
        "return5dPct": 9.2,
        "return30dPct": -6.03
      },
      {
        "name": "消费电子",
        "return1dPct": 3.59,
        "turnoverYi": 528.04,
        "return5dPct": 4.11,
        "return30dPct": -12.12
      },
      {
        "name": "IT服务",
        "return1dPct": 3.58,
        "turnoverYi": 413.09,
        "return5dPct": 3.86,
        "return30dPct": -2.68
      },
      {
        "name": "煤炭开采加工",
        "return1dPct": -1.38,
        "turnoverYi": 159.34,
        "return5dPct": -2.72,
        "return30dPct": -8.71
      },
      {
        "name": "油气开采及服务",
        "return1dPct": -1.03,
        "turnoverYi": 71.3,
        "return5dPct": -3.13,
        "return30dPct": -6.3
      },
      {
        "name": "银行",
        "return1dPct": -0.73,
        "turnoverYi": 397.36,
        "return5dPct": -1.43,
        "return30dPct": 2.16
      },
      {
        "name": "港口航运",
        "return1dPct": -0.7,
        "turnoverYi": 115.13,
        "return5dPct": 1.98,
        "return30dPct": -3.37
      },
      {
        "name": "元件",
        "return1dPct": -0.36,
        "turnoverYi": 1035.23,
        "return5dPct": 0.06,
        "return30dPct": -28.79
      },
      {
        "name": "证券",
        "return1dPct": -0.24,
        "turnoverYi": 225.23,
        "return5dPct": 4.11,
        "return30dPct": -4.52
      },
      {
        "name": "公路铁路运输",
        "return1dPct": 0.01,
        "turnoverYi": 50.32,
        "return5dPct": 1.24,
        "return30dPct": 1.85
      },
      {
        "name": "保险",
        "return1dPct": 0.54,
        "turnoverYi": 59.25,
        "return5dPct": 2.24,
        "return30dPct": -2.36
      },
      {
        "name": "钢铁",
        "return1dPct": 0.77,
        "turnoverYi": 66.41,
        "return5dPct": 3.33,
        "return30dPct": -6.47
      },
      {
        "name": "多元金融",
        "return1dPct": 0.82,
        "turnoverYi": 42.87,
        "return5dPct": 2.81,
        "return30dPct": -5.55
      },
      {
        "name": "半导体",
        "return1dPct": 2.6,
        "turnoverYi": 3017.33,
        "return5dPct": 4.6,
        "return30dPct": -19.76
      },
      {
        "name": "通信设备",
        "return1dPct": 1.29,
        "turnoverYi": 1297.27,
        "return5dPct": -1.13,
        "return30dPct": -23.83
      },
      {
        "name": "通用设备",
        "return1dPct": 2.1,
        "turnoverYi": 663.16,
        "return5dPct": 1.08,
        "return30dPct": -7.81
      },
      {
        "name": "汽车零部件",
        "return1dPct": 2.45,
        "turnoverYi": 594.74,
        "return5dPct": 1.27,
        "return30dPct": -2.62
      },
      {
        "name": "自动化设备",
        "return1dPct": 1.84,
        "turnoverYi": 486.25,
        "return5dPct": 1.64,
        "return30dPct": -9.55
      },
      {
        "name": "厨卫电器",
        "return1dPct": 2.01,
        "turnoverYi": 11.15,
        "return5dPct": 1.21,
        "return30dPct": -3.37
      },
      {
        "name": "贸易",
        "return1dPct": 1.4,
        "turnoverYi": 17.13,
        "return5dPct": 3.94,
        "return30dPct": -4.27
      },
      {
        "name": "橡胶制品",
        "return1dPct": 2.64,
        "turnoverYi": 19.4,
        "return5dPct": 2.2,
        "return30dPct": -12.93
      },
      {
        "name": "黑色家电",
        "return1dPct": 1.9,
        "turnoverYi": 21.9,
        "return5dPct": 4.69,
        "return30dPct": -6.4
      },
      {
        "name": "造纸",
        "return1dPct": 2.12,
        "turnoverYi": 25.43,
        "return5dPct": 0.9,
        "return30dPct": -9.16
      },
      {
        "name": "燃气",
        "return1dPct": 0.88,
        "turnoverYi": 26.46,
        "return5dPct": -0.14,
        "return30dPct": -8.06
      },
      {
        "name": "教育",
        "return1dPct": 3.54,
        "turnoverYi": 28.81,
        "return5dPct": 8.23,
        "return30dPct": -7.46
      },
      {
        "name": "环保设备",
        "return1dPct": 2.79,
        "turnoverYi": 29.31,
        "return5dPct": 3.88,
        "return30dPct": -13.18
      },
      {
        "name": "轨交设备",
        "return1dPct": 1.91,
        "turnoverYi": 30.06,
        "return5dPct": 0.81,
        "return30dPct": -2.47
      },
      {
        "name": "纺织制造",
        "return1dPct": 2.59,
        "turnoverYi": 31.74,
        "return5dPct": 2.69,
        "return30dPct": -1.95
      }
    ],
    "counts": {
      "up": 6,
      "down": 0,
      "aboveMa20": 2,
      "belowMa20": 4,
      "total": 6,
      "weeklyUp": 6
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "上证指数",
      "support": 3646.57,
      "close": 3689.91,
      "ma20": 3701.533,
      "confirmation": 3701.59,
      "toConfirmationPct": 0.3165388857722995,
      "toSupportPct": -1.1745543929255642
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "本期缺少全市场成交额，不对这些维度作归因。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "估值与风险溢价：缺少时点一致的指数估值、盈利收益率与无风险利率组合。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "跨资产验证：本期没有两期可比较的利率、汇率或商品观测。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "deepNarrative": {
      "stance": "weak",
      "mainCandidateId": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
      "supportingCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "judgment-style-persistence"
      ],
      "riskCandidateId": "judgment-style-persistence",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "同一收盘快照上，0/6个指数当日上涨、0/6近5日上涨、0/6站上20日均线。三个窗口来自重叠价格序列，不能算独立证据，但方向一致表明上一交易日之后市场没有出现任何可确认的修复。跌幅大体沿成长度递增：上证指数-0.82%、沪深300-0.20%，而中证1000为-1.71%、创业板指为-2.73%、科创50为-3.81%；市值维度上上证指数跌幅大于沪深300，单日数据不支持跌幅沿市值单调递增，价格结构继续支持弱势框架而非反弹框架。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-sector-profit-map"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "弱势内部出现明显分化：14/33个行业上涨，持续领先的是白酒、影视院线、机场航运、游戏、保险，而成交最活跃的下跌行业是半导体，单日-5.09%、成交1977.52亿元。价格与成交只能确认相对表现，利润迁移缺少同报告期的量价成本与利润率证据；但防御与消费类行业五日持续领先、高成交集中于领跌的半导体，说明本轮下跌并非无差别抛售，弱势的内部结构比指数面显示的更有层次。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-style-persistence"
          ],
          "claimType": "hypothesis",
          "text": "风格维度上，中证1000相对沪深300当日落后1.51个百分点、近20日落后7.33个百分点，小盘相对大盘的弱势在单日与中期两个窗口方向一致。交叉核对支持小盘承压是持续性特征而非单日波动的假说；但相对收益本身不能识别驱动，也无法据此推断小盘弱势还会延续。"
        }
      ],
      "riskText": "上证指数收盘在2026-12-01低于3608.10点时：提高弱势判断的置信度。",
      "contextCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-sector-profit-map",
        "judgment-state-coverage",
        "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "judgment-index-participation",
        "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "judgment-price-boundary",
        "judgment-style-persistence",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-margin-finance",
        "judgment-context-a-feed-dr007",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-fx-rates-china10y",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "judgment-context-a-topic-china-profits-industrialProfitsYtdYoY"
      ],
      "flowVersion": "market-deep-analysis-3.0",
      "judgmentAsOf": "2026-11-03T15:00:00+08:00",
      "judgmentTradingDate": "2026-11-03",
      "updateMode": "routine",
      "analysisStatus": "stale",
      "explanationRanking": [
        {
          "explanation": "中期弱势延续、内部向防御消费切换的假说：三窗口价格结构全面偏弱、小盘成长持续跑输，同时白酒、影视院线等行业五日持续领先，弱势框架仍比反弹框架更受价格证据支持。",
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "limitation": "下跌的资金来源、盈利修正与折现率驱动均未被识别；行业分化只确认价格相对表现，不能证明利润迁移或资金流向。"
        }
      ],
      "judgmentConfidence": 0.65,
      "missingEvidence": [
        "市场一致盈利预测修正记录",
        "时点一致的指数估值与风险溢价组合",
        "基金仓位、融资拥挤度与期权偏度等仓位与衍生品数据",
        "当日可归属的资金流向观测"
      ],
      "retainedPredictionIds": [],
      "observation": {
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "thresholdOptionId": "close",
        "direction": "<",
        "consequence": "提高弱势判断的置信度。",
        "indicatorId": "sh000001",
        "indicator": "上证指数收盘",
        "threshold": 3608.1,
        "dueSession": "2026-12-01",
        "dueAt": "2026-12-01T15:00:00+08:00",
        "unit": "点"
      }
    },
    "analysisStatus": "ready",
    "briefDigest": "56c6d4829b1f765e6b6a5e956210d3a7baadb15f333e1a47961097b2c9a5006e"
  }
}