{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-28T17:15:13.425564+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-28T17:13:34.852107+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-hk-2026-10-28-abc6be5841cf",
    "articleTitle": "港股市场解读 2026-10-28",
    "articleHref": "/markets/hong-kong/2026-10-28.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "32891e1efd31a11fe61c193f085b569771e53d4cd46af679fb16f0c78ab98a56"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-5.0",
    "parentDigest": "5ac8ea9ca99762c5681e5eedf53d76c56d46b17fbaeca91159ff744ba080de20",
    "contextDigest": null,
    "market": "hk",
    "tradingDate": "2026-10-28",
    "targetSession": "2026-10-29",
    "state": "rebound",
    "headline": "单日普涨只是弱结构内的小幅修复，中期弱势未被扭转",
    "verdict": "反弹修复",
    "label": "修复",
    "thesis": "两个指数当日均上涨但仍低于20日均线且近5日均为下跌，本期只能确认弱势结构内的单日修复，不能确认中期转强；利率持平不提供方向约束，驱动机制未被识别。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "horizon-alignment",
      "dimension": "market_structure",
      "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
      "fact": "2/2个指数上涨，0/2个近5日上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
      "meaning": "结论：中期结构仍偏弱，窗口分化先按弱势反弹处理；只有站上20日均线的指数超过半数才改判为转强。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 7,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "hk-hsi",
        "hk-hsce"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 7,
      "availableDimensionCount": 4,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "horizon-alignment",
        "state-coverage",
        "price-boundary",
        "rates-versus-equity"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "2/2个指数上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当日上涨覆盖扩大，但趋势位置尚未同步修复。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数收于23094.83，20日均线23881.67，本期低点23023.04；收盘位于日内区间53%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：反弹已经发生，但站稳均线前不升级为趋势反转。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "恒生指数收盘若突破23881.67或跌破23023.04，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "rates-versus-equity",
      "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
      "title": "利率约束与股票价格同向",
      "observedFact": "美国10年期国债收益率从5.00%变为5.00%（+0基点），恒生指数当日+0.23%。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "利率观测截至2026-10-26；股票价格收盘日2026-10-28，日期不同",
        "sampleSize": null,
        "percentile": null,
        "status": "available"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：利率与股票价格同向，维持当前价格方向，跨资产信号不构成反对项。",
      "causalRole": "跨资产折现约束",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "us10y",
        "hk-hsi"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-10-26",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "缺少指数盈利收益率，不能把利率变化直接写成风险溢价变化或唯一因果。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 6,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 1,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": false
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "2/2个指数上涨，0/2个近5日上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：中期结构仍偏弱，窗口分化先按弱势反弹处理；只有站上20日均线的指数超过半数才改判为转强。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "2/2个指数上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当日上涨覆盖扩大，但趋势位置尚未同步修复。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "rates-versus-equity",
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "title": "利率约束与股票价格同向",
        "observedFact": "美国10年期国债收益率从5.00%变为5.00%（+0基点），恒生指数当日+0.23%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "利率观测截至2026-10-26；股票价格收盘日2026-10-28，日期不同",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：利率与股票价格同向，维持当前价格方向，跨资产信号不构成反对项。",
        "causalRole": "跨资产折现约束",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "us10y",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "缺少指数盈利收益率，不能把利率变化直接写成风险溢价变化或唯一因果。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数收于23094.83，20日均线23881.67，本期低点23023.04；收盘位于日内区间53%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：反弹已经发生，但站稳均线前不升级为趋势反转。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "恒生指数收盘若突破23881.67或跌破23023.04，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数当日+0.09个百分点、近20日+1.11个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsce",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数近5日-2.36%、近20日-6.28%；5日变化处于短样本第38分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 38,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数近5日-2.36%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第38分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 38,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当前涨跌不极端，短历史分位不支持追涨或抄底，方向仍由趋势结构决定。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 3,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 3/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "2/2个指数上涨，0/2个近5日上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "hk-hsce",
            "name": "恒生国企日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSCEI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "2/2个指数上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "hk-hsce",
            "name": "恒生国企日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSCEI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-rates-versus-equity",
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "title": "利率约束与股票价格同向",
        "observedFact": "美国10年期国债收益率从5.00%变为5.00%（+0基点），恒生指数当日+0.23%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "利率观测截至2026-10-26；股票价格收盘日2026-10-28，日期不同",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "跨资产折现约束",
        "sources": [
          "us10y",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "us10y",
            "name": "美国财政部：Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve 10年期 · 2026-10-26",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv"
          },
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数收于23094.83，20日均线23881.67，本期低点23023.04；收盘位于日内区间53%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数当日+0.09个百分点、近20日+1.11个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsce",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsce",
            "name": "恒生国企日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSCEI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数近5日-2.36%、近20日-6.28%；5日变化处于短样本第38分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 38,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数近5日-2.36%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第38分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 38,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 3,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 3/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy",
        "dimension": "positioning_flows",
        "title": "南向资金净买入的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "南向资金净买入在2026-10-27为-12.3771亿港元；较2026-10-26变化8.3766亿港元（相对变化+40.36%）。该观测于2026-10-27T19:38:50.571265+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 14,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "交易参与和杠杆位置",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy-source-40d22bb509"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 3,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 0,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:hk-connect:southbound-net-buy",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy-source-40d22bb509",
            "name": "香港交易所",
            "url": "https://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/csm/DailyStat/data_tab_daily_20261027e.js",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-27T19:38:50.571265+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh",
        "dimension": "valuation_rates",
        "title": "美元兑离岸人民币的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "美元兑离岸人民币在2026-10-26为6.6682元/美元；较2026-10-23变化-0.0008元/美元（相对变化-0.01%）。该观测于2026-10-26T20:09:12.016409+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 1245,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "汇率与折现率",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh-source-8102e2282b"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 3,
          "sourceQuality": 1,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-fx-rates:usdCnh",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh-source-8102e2282b",
            "name": "CNBC：USD/CNH离岸人民币现货（非官方）",
            "url": "https://quote.cnbc.com/quote-html-webservice/restQuote/symbolType/symbol?symbols=CNH%3D&requestMethod=quick&noform=1&partnerId=2&fund=1&exthrs=1&output=json",
            "type": "vendor"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-26",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-26T20:09:12.016409+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "dimension": "real_economy",
        "title": "制造业PMI的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "制造业PMI在2026-09-30为50.1点；较2026-08-31变化0.3点（相对变化+0.60%）。该观测于2026-09-30T20:07:22.855379+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 122,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "订单、生产与需求",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-orders:manufacturingPmi",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd",
            "name": "国家统计局：9月份制造业采购经理指数",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202609/t20260930_1965449.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-09-30T20:07:22.855379+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin",
        "dimension": "profit_cash",
        "title": "工业企业营业收入利润率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "工业企业营业收入利润率在2026-09-30为5.68%；较2026-08-31变化0.02个百分点（相对变化+0.35%）。该观测于2026-10-27T10:41:12.997421+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 4,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "利润、库存与回款",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1bd7b5e589"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 0,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:industrial-profit-margin",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1bd7b5e589",
            "name": "国家统计局工业企业财务数据",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261027_1965697.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-27T10:41:12.997421+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent",
        "dimension": "cross_asset",
        "title": "布伦特原油现货价的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "布伦特原油现货价在2026-10-20为115.22美元/桶；较2026-10-19变化-3.6美元/桶（相对变化-3.03%）。该观测于2026-10-22T05:41:30.709190+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 177,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "跨资产成本约束",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent-source-9535a4f7c7"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:markets:oil-brent",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent-source-9535a4f7c7",
            "name": "美国能源信息署 EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-20",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-22T05:41:30.709190+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      }
    ],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "已取得无风险利率变化，但缺少指数盈利收益率，不能计算股权风险溢价。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "同一信息截止时点内比较利率与股票价格方向。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有同日行业表，不能推断产业链利润重新分配。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "0/2个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有0/2个。恒生指数近20日-6.28%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数：当日+0.09个百分点，近20日+1.11个百分点。",
        "meaning": "当天与20日均领先，相对强度具备延续性；优先级高于只涨一天的方向。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsce",
          "hk-hsi"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "恒生指数收于23094.83，位于日内区间的53%位置；距20日均线-3.29%。",
        "meaning": "收盘没有收复均线，盘中回升尚不足以推翻主判断。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：新上升趋势已确认",
      "text": "反对理由：上涨的有2个，站上20日均线的只有0个。日内反弹证据已经出现，中期确认仍落后。"
    },
    "macro": [
      {
        "title": "估值约束",
        "fact": "美国10年期国债收益率5.00%（2026-10-26），较2026-10-23+0基点。",
        "meaning": "利率没有可确认的下降变化，本期不采用利率宽松驱动反弹的解释。",
        "role": "背景变量",
        "sources": [
          "us10y"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "汇率传导的强弱",
        "fact": "USD/CNH 6.6682（2026-10-26），较前值-0.012%。",
        "meaning": "汇率变动不足0.1%，在本期证据中权重低于指数趋势，不将它解释为主要驱动。",
        "role": "背景变量",
        "sources": [
          "usdCnh"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "港股先区分人民币现金流与美元融资约束",
        "fact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数当日+0.09个百分点、近20日+1.11个百分点。",
        "meaning": "本期指数只支持中国企业资产与大盘的相对比较，不能替代互联网、金融、地产等行业指数。研究企业时应继续核对收入币种、美元负债、盈利和分红现金覆盖。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsce",
          "hk-hsi"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": null,
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "优先看：恒生国企相对表现",
        "text": "恒生国企当日+0.32%、近20日-5.17%。两个窗口均相对领先，因此作为优先观察方向；相对领先不等于绝对上涨。",
        "condition": "恒生国企下一交易日跑赢恒生指数，且收盘高于8019.43，保留领先判断。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "恒生指数收盘跌破23023.04，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "恒生国企相对恒生指数单日+0.09个百分点，但20日差值为+1.11个百分点。领先差值若持续收窄，应下调原来的风格优先级。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "反弹修复",
        "text": "恒生指数收盘仍在23023.04与23881.67之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "恒生指数收盘高于23881.67，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "恒生指数收盘低于23023.04，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "hk",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "hk-hsi",
        "indicator": "恒生指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 23094.83,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-11-25",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-25T16:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.64,
        "invalidation": "2026-11-25收盘若不低于23094.83点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-0.60；当前状态为反弹修复。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-11-25），恒生指数预计低于23094.83点。",
        "id": "pred-market-5f0a9a400a95aafba64d"
      },
      {
        "market": "hk",
        "horizonSessions": 60,
        "indicatorId": "hk-hsi",
        "indicator": "恒生指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 23094.83,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2027-01-22",
        "dueAt": "2027-01-22T16:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.59,
        "invalidation": "2027-01-22收盘若不低于23094.83点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-0.60；当前状态为反弹修复。",
        "statement": "60个交易日后（2027-01-22），恒生指数预计低于23094.83点。",
        "id": "pred-market-33ec8e96c95aa6397d32"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "hk-hsi",
        "name": "恒生指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "hk-hsce",
        "name": "恒生国企日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSCEI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "us10y",
        "name": "美国财政部：Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve 10年期 · 2026-10-26",
        "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv"
      },
      {
        "id": "usdCnh",
        "name": "CNBC：USD/CNH离岸人民币现货（非官方） · 2026-10-26",
        "url": "https://quote.cnbc.com/quote-html-webservice/restQuote/symbolType/symbol?symbols=CNH%3D&requestMethod=quick&noform=1&partnerId=2&fund=1&exthrs=1&output=json"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy-source-40d22bb509",
        "name": "香港交易所",
        "url": "https://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/csm/DailyStat/data_tab_daily_20261027e.js"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh-source-8102e2282b",
        "name": "CNBC：USD/CNH离岸人民币现货（非官方）",
        "url": "https://quote.cnbc.com/quote-html-webservice/restQuote/symbolType/symbol?symbols=CNH%3D&requestMethod=quick&noform=1&partnerId=2&fund=1&exthrs=1&output=json"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd",
        "name": "国家统计局：9月份制造业采购经理指数",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202609/t20260930_1965449.html"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1bd7b5e589",
        "name": "国家统计局工业企业财务数据",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261027_1965697.html"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent-source-9535a4f7c7",
        "name": "美国能源信息署 EIA",
        "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [],
    "counts": {
      "up": 2,
      "down": 0,
      "aboveMa20": 0,
      "belowMa20": 2,
      "total": 2,
      "weeklyUp": 0
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "恒生指数",
      "support": 23023.04,
      "close": 23094.83,
      "ma20": 23881.6715,
      "confirmation": 23881.6715,
      "toConfirmationPct": 3.407002779409929,
      "toSupportPct": -0.3108487916992697
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "观察范围为2个指数，不代表全市场个股涨跌家数。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "产业链利润重新分配：本期没有同日行业表，不能推断产业链利润重新分配。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "deepNarrative": {
      "stance": "rebound",
      "mainCandidateId": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
      "supportingCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-price-boundary",
        "judgment-rates-versus-equity"
      ],
      "riskCandidateId": "judgment-rates-versus-equity",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "2026-10-28两个指数当日均上涨（恒生指数+0.23%，恒生国企+0.32%），但0/2个指数近5日上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。本期冻结证据仅覆盖2026-10-28收盘快照内的当日方向、5日方向与20日均线位置，三个窗口来自同一重叠价格序列，不能当作独立证据。在本期证据内可确认的方向组合是：两个指数当日上涨、近5日均为下跌且均低于20日均线，即当日方向与5日方向和均线位置不再同向。这只能说明修复力度存在，不足以宣布弱势结束：近5日与近20日是不同窗口，短期修复与中期仍弱可以并存。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-price-boundary"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "恒生指数2026-10-28收于23094.83，低于20日均线23881.67，高于本期低点23023.04，收盘位于日内区间53%。收盘高于本期低点只是当前收盘价与该参照位的相对位置描述，本期低点由重叠价格序列计算，不构成下跌缓冲或支撑的定义，也不能排除单日噪声；历史低点同样不是价格下限。日内位置只描述收盘在区间的相对高度，不能据此确认买卖盘或抛压。这一证据的可信用途是给出改判边界：到期收盘若低于本期低点23023.04，将按观察线判定修复叙事被否定。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-rates-versus-equity"
          ],
          "claimType": "hypothesis",
          "text": "美国10年期国债收益率在2026-10-26持平于5.00%，为前日观测，恒生指数2026-10-28当日+0.23%。利率没有变动，折现率渠道本期不提供方向性约束，既不支持也不削弱折现率缓解假说；当日上涨的驱动在本期证据中未被识别，不应归因于利率，也不能把上涨家数或幅度写成资金或折现率机制。"
        }
      ],
      "riskText": "恒生指数收盘在2026-11-25低于23023.04点时：下调修复判断的置信度。",
      "contextCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "judgment-state-coverage",
        "judgment-rates-versus-equity",
        "judgment-price-boundary",
        "judgment-style-persistence",
        "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "judgment-context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy",
        "judgment-context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh",
        "judgment-context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "judgment-context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin",
        "judgment-context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent"
      ],
      "flowVersion": "market-deep-analysis-3.0",
      "judgmentAsOf": "2026-10-28T16:00:00+08:00",
      "judgmentTradingDate": "2026-10-28",
      "updateMode": "model",
      "analysisStatus": "current",
      "explanationRanking": [
        {
          "explanation": "单日修复尚未扭转中期弱势：两个指数当日上涨但近5日均为下跌且均低于20日均线，价格结构仍以中期弱势为主、短期修复为辅",
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "limitation": "三个窗口来自重叠价格序列，只能确认方向组合，不能识别上涨或下跌的驱动机制"
        }
      ],
      "judgmentConfidence": 0.65,
      "missingEvidence": [
        "盈利预测修正记录",
        "指数盈利收益率以计算股权风险溢价",
        "基金仓位、拥挤度与衍生品定价数据"
      ],
      "retainedPredictionIds": [],
      "observation": {
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "thresholdOptionId": "period-low",
        "direction": "<",
        "consequence": "下调修复判断的置信度。",
        "indicatorId": "hk-hsi",
        "indicator": "恒生指数收盘",
        "threshold": 23023.04,
        "dueSession": "2026-11-25",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-25T16:00:00+08:00",
        "unit": "点"
      }
    },
    "analysisStatus": "ready",
    "briefDigest": "ff96bbb9343cf1d1190e0c1bd1c18352ab9815fee73b9173eab9f3c817a3270e"
  }
}