{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-29T17:59:15.517600+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-29T16:24:37.697639+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
    "articleId": "market-hk-2026-10-29-4c64b166d8a8",
    "articleTitle": "港股市场解读 2026-10-29",
    "articleHref": "/markets/hong-kong/2026-10-29.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "50c65f4924e1ac81c26c225308f133d3dc8b94ff8327f1db15aeb235ef29f9ff"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-5.0",
    "parentDigest": "6fd1a682481aea1e2aeca75a46f44ca2e18cd63f74ed0c78a336d9b1e6404df1",
    "contextDigest": null,
    "market": "hk",
    "tradingDate": "2026-10-29",
    "targetSession": "2026-10-30",
    "state": "weak",
    "headline": "当日全线下跌，中期弱势结构仍主导",
    "verdict": "偏弱震荡",
    "label": "防守",
    "thesis": "10月29日两个指数当日下跌、近5日仍为上涨但均低于20日均线，短期窗口与中期位置背离，中期弱势仍是主导状态；前日利率上行与当日下跌方向同向但日期不同，尚不能归因。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "horizon-alignment",
      "dimension": "market_structure",
      "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
      "fact": "0/2个指数上涨，2/2个近5日上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
      "meaning": "结论：中期结构仍偏弱，窗口分化先按弱势反弹处理；只有站上20日均线的指数超过半数才改判为转强。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 7,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "hk-hsi",
        "hk-hsce"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 7,
      "availableDimensionCount": 4,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "horizon-alignment",
        "rates-versus-equity",
        "state-coverage",
        "style-persistence"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "rates-versus-equity",
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "title": "利率约束与股票价格同向",
        "observedFact": "美国10年期国债收益率从4.99%变为5.05%（+6基点），恒生指数当日-0.59%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "利率观测截至2026-10-28；股票价格收盘日2026-10-29，日期不同",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：利率与股票价格同向，维持当前价格方向，跨资产信号不构成反对项。",
        "causalRole": "跨资产折现约束",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "us10y",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "缺少指数盈利收益率，不能把利率变化直接写成风险溢价变化或唯一因果。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/2个指数上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "style-persistence",
      "dimension": "market_structure",
      "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
      "observedFact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数当日+0.13个百分点、近20日+1.21个百分点。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
        "sampleSize": null,
        "percentile": null,
        "status": "available"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
      "causalRole": "风格持续性",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "hk-hsce",
        "hk-hsi"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-10-29",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 5,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 1,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": false
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "0/2个指数上涨，2/2个近5日上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：中期结构仍偏弱，窗口分化先按弱势反弹处理；只有站上20日均线的指数超过半数才改判为转强。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/2个指数上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数收于22958.65，20日均线23803.43，本期低点22928.27；收盘位于日内区间12%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：收盘未取得趋势位置支持，先按弱势结构处理。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "恒生指数收盘若突破23803.43或跌破22928.27，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "rates-versus-equity",
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "title": "利率约束与股票价格同向",
        "observedFact": "美国10年期国债收益率从4.99%变为5.05%（+6基点），恒生指数当日-0.59%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "利率观测截至2026-10-28；股票价格收盘日2026-10-29，日期不同",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：利率与股票价格同向，维持当前价格方向，跨资产信号不构成反对项。",
        "causalRole": "跨资产折现约束",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "us10y",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "缺少指数盈利收益率，不能把利率变化直接写成风险溢价变化或唯一因果。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数当日+0.13个百分点、近20日+1.21个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向一致，相对强弱比单日排名更有持续性。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsce",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数近5日+0.10%、近20日-6.38%；5日变化处于短样本第62分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 62,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：价格没有进入极端区间，方向继续服从趋势结构，不做反转判断。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数近5日+0.10%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第62分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 62,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：当前涨跌不极端，短历史分位不支持追涨或抄底，方向仍由趋势结构决定。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 3,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 3/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置没有同向",
        "observedFact": "0/2个指数上涨，2/2个近5日上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "hk-hsce",
            "name": "恒生国企日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSCEI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/2个指数上涨，0/2个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "hk-hsce",
            "name": "恒生国企日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSCEI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数收于22958.65，20日均线23803.43，本期低点22928.27；收盘位于日内区间12%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-rates-versus-equity",
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "title": "利率约束与股票价格同向",
        "observedFact": "美国10年期国债收益率从4.99%变为5.05%（+6基点），恒生指数当日-0.59%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "利率观测截至2026-10-28；股票价格收盘日2026-10-29，日期不同",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "跨资产折现约束",
        "sources": [
          "us10y",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "us10y",
            "name": "美国财政部：Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve 10年期 · 2026-10-28",
            "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv"
          },
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数当日+0.13个百分点、近20日+1.21个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsce",
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsce",
            "name": "恒生国企日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSCEI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          },
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数近5日+0.10%、近20日-6.38%；5日变化处于短样本第62分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 62,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 4,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 4/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "恒生指数近5日+0.10%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第62分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 62,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 3,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 0,
          "decisionImpact": 1,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常0/3 + 决策影响1/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 3/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-29",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "market_price",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "hk-hsi",
            "name": "恒生指数日线",
            "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
          }
        ]
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy",
        "dimension": "positioning_flows",
        "title": "南向资金净买入的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "南向资金净买入在2026-10-28为-8.0412亿港元；较2026-10-27变化4.3359亿港元（相对变化+35.03%）。该观测于2026-10-28T20:27:31.004115+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 15,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "交易参与和杠杆位置",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy-source-11b97f68a8"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 3,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 0,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:hk-connect:southbound-net-buy",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy-source-11b97f68a8",
            "name": "香港交易所",
            "url": "https://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/csm/DailyStat/data_tab_daily_20261028e.js",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-28T20:27:31.004115+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh",
        "dimension": "valuation_rates",
        "title": "美元兑离岸人民币的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "美元兑离岸人民币在2026-10-28为6.6609元/美元；较2026-10-26变化-0.0073元/美元（相对变化-0.11%）。该观测于2026-10-29T09:19:12.873124+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 1246,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "汇率与折现率",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh-source-8102e2282b"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 3,
          "sourceQuality": 1,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-fx-rates:usdCnh",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh-source-8102e2282b",
            "name": "CNBC：USD/CNH离岸人民币现货（非官方）",
            "url": "https://quote.cnbc.com/quote-html-webservice/restQuote/symbolType/symbol?symbols=CNH%3D&requestMethod=quick&noform=1&partnerId=2&fund=1&exthrs=1&output=json",
            "type": "vendor"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-28",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-29T09:19:12.873124+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "dimension": "real_economy",
        "title": "制造业PMI的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "制造业PMI在2026-09-30为50.1点；较2026-08-31变化0.3点（相对变化+0.60%）。该观测于2026-09-30T20:07:22.855379+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 122,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "订单、生产与需求",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:china-orders:manufacturingPmi",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd",
            "name": "国家统计局：9月份制造业采购经理指数",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202609/t20260930_1965449.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-09-30T20:07:22.855379+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin",
        "dimension": "profit_cash",
        "title": "工业企业营业收入利润率的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "工业企业营业收入利润率在2026-09-30为5.68%；较2026-08-31变化0.02个百分点（相对变化+0.35%）。该观测于2026-10-27T10:41:12.997421+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 4,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "利润、库存与回款",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1bd7b5e589"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 0,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "feed:industrial-profit-margin",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1bd7b5e589",
            "name": "国家统计局工业企业财务数据",
            "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261027_1965697.html",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-09-30",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-27T10:41:12.997421+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      },
      {
        "id": "judgment-context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent",
        "dimension": "cross_asset",
        "title": "布伦特原油现货价的时点观测",
        "observedFact": "布伦特原油现货价在2026-10-27为123.1美元/桶；较2026-10-26变化-5.02美元/桶（相对变化-3.92%）。该观测于2026-10-29T02:31:47.912827+08:00已知，早于本期信息截止时点2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "截止收盘前可复核的同口径历史",
          "sampleSize": 182,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "causalRole": "跨资产成本约束",
        "sources": [
          "context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent-source-9535a4f7c7"
        ],
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 8,
          "relevance": 2,
          "sourceQuality": 2,
          "catalogStatus": 1,
          "history": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false,
        "catalogId": "topic:markets:oil-brent",
        "sourceDetails": [
          {
            "id": "context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent-source-9535a4f7c7",
            "name": "美国能源信息署 EIA",
            "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm",
            "type": "official"
          }
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-27",
          "knownAt": "2026-10-29T02:31:47.912827+08:00",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "evidenceScope": "observed_series"
      }
    ],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "已取得无风险利率变化，但缺少指数盈利收益率，不能计算股权风险溢价。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "同一信息截止时点内比较利率与股票价格方向。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有同日行业表，不能推断产业链利润重新分配。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "0/2个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有2/2个。恒生指数近20日-6.38%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi",
          "hk-hsce"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数：当日+0.13个百分点，近20日+1.21个百分点。",
        "meaning": "当天与20日均领先，相对强度具备延续性；优先级高于只涨一天的方向。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsce",
          "hk-hsi"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "恒生指数收于22958.65，位于日内区间的12%位置；距20日均线-3.55%。",
        "meaning": "收近低点，日内承接偏弱，是继续向上推进的阻力。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsi"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：全面反转已开始",
      "text": "反对理由：2/2个指数仍低于20日均线，近5日上涨的有2个。即使局部反弹，也不足以覆盖这组趋势证据。"
    },
    "macro": [
      {
        "title": "估值约束",
        "fact": "美国10年期国债收益率5.05%（2026-10-28），较2026-10-27+6基点。",
        "meaning": "利率上升 → 未来现金流折现更重 → 估值扩张更难。本期利率变化没有提供估值抬升的支持，价格改善需要由盈利预期等其他证据解释。",
        "role": "背景变量",
        "sources": [
          "us10y"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "汇率传导的强弱",
        "fact": "USD/CNH 6.6594（2026-10-29），较前值-0.023%。",
        "meaning": "汇率变动不足0.1%，在本期证据中权重低于指数趋势，不将它解释为主要驱动。",
        "role": "背景变量",
        "sources": [
          "usdCnh"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "港股先区分人民币现金流与美元融资约束",
        "fact": "恒生国企相对恒生指数当日+0.13个百分点、近20日+1.21个百分点。",
        "meaning": "本期指数只支持中国企业资产与大盘的相对比较，不能替代互联网、金融、地产等行业指数。研究企业时应继续核对收入币种、美元负债、盈利和分红现金覆盖。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "hk-hsce",
          "hk-hsi"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": null,
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "优先看：恒生国企相对表现",
        "text": "恒生国企当日-0.46%、近20日-5.17%。两个窗口均相对领先，因此作为优先观察方向；相对领先不等于绝对上涨。",
        "condition": "恒生国企下一交易日跑赢恒生指数，且收盘高于7998.27，保留领先判断。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "恒生指数收盘跌破22928.27，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "恒生国企相对恒生指数单日+0.13个百分点，但20日差值为+1.21个百分点。领先差值若持续收窄，应下调原来的风格优先级。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "偏弱震荡",
        "text": "恒生指数收盘仍在22928.27与23803.43之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "恒生指数收盘高于23803.43，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "恒生指数收盘低于22928.27，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "hk",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "hk-hsi",
        "indicator": "恒生指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 22958.65,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-11-26",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-26T16:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.59,
        "invalidation": "2026-11-26收盘若不低于22958.65点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-0.30；当前状态为偏弱震荡。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-11-26），恒生指数预计低于22958.65点。",
        "id": "pred-market-3488940f9cf4a4ed1578"
      },
      {
        "market": "hk",
        "horizonSessions": 60,
        "indicatorId": "hk-hsi",
        "indicator": "恒生指数收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 22958.65,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2027-01-25",
        "dueAt": "2027-01-25T16:00:00+08:00",
        "confidence": 0.54,
        "invalidation": "2027-01-25收盘若不低于22958.65点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-0.30；当前状态为偏弱震荡。",
        "statement": "60个交易日后（2027-01-25），恒生指数预计低于22958.65点。",
        "id": "pred-market-e70bb7162e10e93ace10"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "hk-hsi",
        "name": "恒生指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "hk-hsce",
        "name": "恒生国企日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/fqkline/get?param=hkHSCEI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "us10y",
        "name": "美国财政部：Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve 10年期 · 2026-10-28",
        "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv"
      },
      {
        "id": "usdCnh",
        "name": "东方财富：USD/CNH行情快照（非官方） · 2026-10-29",
        "url": "https://push2.eastmoney.com/api/qt/stock/get?secid=133.USDCNH&fields=f43,f57,f58,f60"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy-source-11b97f68a8",
        "name": "香港交易所",
        "url": "https://www.hkex.com.hk/eng/csm/DailyStat/data_tab_daily_20261028e.js"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh-source-8102e2282b",
        "name": "CNBC：USD/CNH离岸人民币现货（非官方）",
        "url": "https://quote.cnbc.com/quote-html-webservice/restQuote/symbolType/symbol?symbols=CNH%3D&requestMethod=quick&noform=1&partnerId=2&fund=1&exthrs=1&output=json"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi-source-83f55677bd",
        "name": "国家统计局：9月份制造业采购经理指数",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202609/t20260930_1965449.html"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin-source-1bd7b5e589",
        "name": "国家统计局工业企业财务数据",
        "url": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261027_1965697.html"
      },
      {
        "id": "context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent-source-9535a4f7c7",
        "name": "美国能源信息署 EIA",
        "url": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [],
    "counts": {
      "up": 0,
      "down": 2,
      "aboveMa20": 0,
      "belowMa20": 2,
      "total": 2,
      "weeklyUp": 2
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "恒生指数",
      "support": 22928.27,
      "close": 22958.65,
      "ma20": 23803.4255,
      "confirmation": 23803.4255,
      "toConfirmationPct": 3.679552151367793,
      "toSupportPct": -0.13232485359548907
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "观察范围为2个指数，不代表全市场个股涨跌家数。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "产业链利润重新分配：本期没有同日行业表，不能推断产业链利润重新分配。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "deepNarrative": {
      "stance": "weak",
      "mainCandidateId": "judgment-horizon-alignment",
      "supportingCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-price-boundary",
        "judgment-rates-versus-equity"
      ],
      "riskCandidateId": "judgment-rates-versus-equity",
      "paragraphs": [
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "2026-10-29两个指数当日均下跌（恒生指数-0.589656%，恒生国企-0.461649%），近5日均为上涨，但0/2个指数站上20日均线。当日、5日与均线位置来自同一重叠价格序列，不能当作独立证据。可确认的观测是：当日全线下跌，短期5日窗口为正而中期位置仍低于20日均线，短期窗口与中期位置背离；在本期证据内中期弱势更为明确。前一交易日的单日方向未被本期证据覆盖，不在此作为事实陈述。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-price-boundary"
          ],
          "claimType": "observation",
          "text": "恒生指数收于22958.65，低于20日均线23803.43，本期低点为22928.27，收盘位于日内区间12%。收盘贴近本期低点只是同一价格序列内的相对位置描述，重叠的价格窗口不构成独立证据，也不排除价格波动中的噪声成分；本期低点不定义价格下限或下跌缓冲，日内低位本身不能确认抛压将持续。这条证据的用途只是给出明确改判边界：到期收盘若低于本期低点22928.27，应认定弱势进一步确认。"
        },
        {
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-rates-versus-equity"
          ],
          "claimType": "hypothesis",
          "text": "美国10年期国债收益率在2026-10-28从前值4.99%升至5.05%（+6基点），为前日观测；恒生指数2026-10-29当日-0.589656%。利率上行与股价下跌方向同向，与折现率抬高压制估值的假说相容，但日期不同且不能据此归因，其它传导与共同驱动未被识别，只能说本期没有与折现率压力相矛盾的价格证据。"
        }
      ],
      "riskText": "恒生指数收盘在2026-11-26低于22928.27点时：提高弱势判断的置信度。",
      "contextCandidateIds": [
        "judgment-horizon-alignment",
        "judgment-state-coverage",
        "judgment-price-boundary",
        "judgment-rates-versus-equity",
        "judgment-style-persistence",
        "judgment-price-implied-pricing",
        "judgment-historical-five-day",
        "judgment-context-hk-topic-hk-connect-southbound-net-buy",
        "judgment-context-hk-topic-china-fx-rates-usdCnh",
        "judgment-context-hk-topic-china-orders-manufacturingPmi",
        "judgment-context-hk-feed-industrial-profit-margin",
        "judgment-context-hk-topic-markets-oil-brent"
      ],
      "flowVersion": "market-deep-analysis-3.0",
      "judgmentAsOf": "2026-10-29T16:00:00+08:00",
      "judgmentTradingDate": "2026-10-29",
      "updateMode": "model",
      "analysisStatus": "current",
      "explanationRanking": [
        {
          "explanation": "修复未延续、中期弱势主导：当日全线下跌且贴近本期低点，两指数仍低于20日均线，短期5日上涨不足以改变中期位置",
          "candidateIds": [
            "judgment-horizon-alignment"
          ],
          "limitation": "当日与均线窗口来自重叠价格序列，只能确认方向组合，驱动机制未被识别，利率同向仅相容不能归因"
        }
      ],
      "judgmentConfidence": 0.65,
      "missingEvidence": [
        "盈利预测修正记录",
        "指数盈利收益率以计算股权风险溢价",
        "基金仓位、拥挤度与衍生品定价数据"
      ],
      "retainedPredictionIds": [],
      "observation": {
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "thresholdOptionId": "period-low",
        "direction": "<",
        "consequence": "提高弱势判断的置信度。",
        "indicatorId": "hk-hsi",
        "indicator": "恒生指数收盘",
        "threshold": 22928.27,
        "dueSession": "2026-11-26",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-26T16:00:00+08:00",
        "unit": "点"
      }
    },
    "analysisStatus": "ready",
    "briefDigest": "01b2f7d1c8ea85dcc117ac7f92744cdf39c29d952aaf4a0728bdea322e90ad0c"
  }
}