{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "createdAt": "2026-10-25T01:15:04.038371+08:00",
  "kind": "accountable_market_judgment",
  "predictionRegistration": {
    "registeredAt": "2026-10-15T12:42:40.392106+08:00",
    "sourceCutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
    "articleId": "market-us-2026-10-14-15f337b6b71f",
    "articleTitle": "美股市场解读 2026-10-14",
    "articleHref": "/markets/us/2026-10-14.html",
    "status": "linked_to_registered",
    "policy": "method_upgrade_reuses_original_prediction",
    "digest": "7319e294c0e962d026740aafedb1f0a3a611990bbfd47a4f2cee9e1d7dfd1b68"
  },
  "analysis": {
    "methodVersion": "market-reader-brief-4.0",
    "parentDigest": "29a3b5443c4f43b3c109b410f76b13d8de49a21ab0b04f4b9034c2ff5f123562",
    "contextDigest": null,
    "market": "us",
    "tradingDate": "2026-10-14",
    "targetSession": "2026-10-15",
    "state": "weak",
    "headline": "多数指数仍在均线下方，趋势修复没有完成",
    "verdict": "偏弱震荡",
    "label": "防守",
    "thesis": "我仍按偏弱震荡判断。3/3个指数收跌，2/3个在20日均线下；多数指数尚未收复均线，是我不采用全面转强判断的主要依据。",
    "mainContradiction": {
      "candidateId": "historical-five-day",
      "dimension": "historical_percentile",
      "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
      "fact": "标普500近5日-1.06%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第12分位。",
      "meaning": "结论：短线已超跌，继续杀跌的优先级下调，先看技术性修复；该分位只定义短期位置。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 6,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 2,
        "decisionImpact": 2,
        "independence": 1,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
      },
      "sources": [
        "us-spx"
      ]
    },
    "evidenceSelection": {
      "method": "information-gain-selection-1.0",
      "scoreMethod": "信息增量=异常程度(0-3)+决策影响(0-3)+独立验证(0-2)+时点质量(0-1)。分数只用于同一期证据排序，不是概率。",
      "candidateCount": 7,
      "availableDimensionCount": 4,
      "selectedCandidateIds": [
        "historical-five-day",
        "state-coverage",
        "horizon-alignment",
        "rates-versus-equity"
      ]
    },
    "supportingEvidence": [
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/3个指数上涨，1/3个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx",
          "us-ndx",
          "us-dji"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-14",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/3个指数上涨，1/3个近5日上涨，1/3个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏弱，维持弱势判断，站回20日均线再改判。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx",
          "us-ndx",
          "us-dji"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-14",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      }
    ],
    "counterEvidence": {
      "id": "rates-versus-equity",
      "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
      "title": "利率约束与股票价格背离",
      "observedFact": "美国10年期国债收益率从5.24%变为5.21%（-3基点），标普500当日-1.11%。",
      "baseline": {
        "label": "利率观测截至2026-10-13；股票价格收盘日2026-10-14，日期不同",
        "sampleSize": null,
        "percentile": null,
        "status": "available"
      },
      "meaning": "结论：利率没有确认股票反弹，下调本次反弹质量，维持修复判断，不升级为趋势反转。",
      "causalRole": "跨资产折现约束",
      "relation": "counters",
      "sources": [
        "us10y",
        "us-spx"
      ],
      "timeAlignment": {
        "asOf": "2026-10-13",
        "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
        "status": "aligned"
      },
      "counterEvidence": "缺少指数盈利收益率，不能把利率变化直接写成风险溢价变化或唯一因果。",
      "informationGain": {
        "total": 7,
        "maximum": 9,
        "anomaly": 1,
        "decisionImpact": 3,
        "independence": 2,
        "timeQuality": 1,
        "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
      },
      "eligibleMainContradiction": false
    },
    "evidenceCandidates": [
      {
        "id": "rates-versus-equity",
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "title": "利率约束与股票价格背离",
        "observedFact": "美国10年期国债收益率从5.24%变为5.21%（-3基点），标普500当日-1.11%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "利率观测截至2026-10-13；股票价格收盘日2026-10-14，日期不同",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：利率没有确认股票反弹，下调本次反弹质量，维持修复判断，不升级为趋势反转。",
        "causalRole": "跨资产折现约束",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "us10y",
          "us-spx"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-13",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "缺少指数盈利收益率，不能把利率变化直接写成风险溢价变化或唯一因果。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 2,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证2/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "state-coverage",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "市场方向覆盖度",
        "observedFact": "0/3个指数上涨，1/3个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本报告覆盖的全部指数",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：上涨与趋势覆盖都不足，多数指数修复尚未完成。",
        "causalRole": "市场覆盖",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx",
          "us-ndx",
          "us-dji"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-14",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "观察指数不是全市场个股；若个股广度方向相反，指数覆盖不能代表普遍行情。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 7,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 7/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "historical-five-day",
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "title": "5日变化放回短历史分位",
        "observedFact": "标普500近5日-1.06%，在本快照可复算的16个5日窗口中处于第12分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一快照内16个5日滚动窗口",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 12,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线已超跌，继续杀跌的优先级下调，先看技术性修复；该分位只定义短期位置。",
        "causalRole": "历史异常",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-14",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "快照只有21个交易日；更长历史可能改变这一分位，当前结果只作短期异常度。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "horizon-alignment",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "短期方向与中期位置相互确认",
        "observedFact": "0/3个指数上涨，1/3个近5日上涨，1/3个站上20日均线。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "同一收盘快照的当日、5日与20日均线位置",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：三个窗口一致偏弱，维持弱势判断，站回20日均线再改判。",
        "causalRole": "价格路径",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx",
          "us-ndx",
          "us-dji"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-14",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日三个窗口重新同向，当前窗口分化就不再成立。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 3,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响3/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-implied-pricing",
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "title": "价格路径的短样本异常程度",
        "observedFact": "标普500近5日-1.06%、近20日+2.21%；5日变化处于短样本第12分位。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "仅基于价格的短样本代理，不等同于市场一致预期",
          "sampleSize": 16,
          "percentile": 12,
          "status": "partial"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：短线已超跌，降低继续杀跌优先级；先看修复，但不据此判断中期见底。",
        "causalRole": "预期计入",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-14",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "没有盈利一致预期、估值和仓位数据，不能据此声称市场已经充分定价。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      },
      {
        "id": "style-persistence",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "风格领先能否跨窗口成立",
        "observedFact": "纳斯达克综合指数相对标普500当日-0.77个百分点、近20日+0.54个百分点。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "当日相对收益与20日相对收益交叉核对",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：两个窗口方向相反，单日轮动还不能升级为持续主线。",
        "causalRole": "风格持续性",
        "relation": "counters",
        "sources": [
          "us-ndx",
          "us-spx"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-14",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "若下一交易日相对收益反向，当前风格持续性判断降级。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 6,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 2,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常2/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 6/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": true
      },
      {
        "id": "price-boundary",
        "dimension": "market_structure",
        "title": "收盘位置给出明确改判边界",
        "observedFact": "标普500收于7718.94，20日均线7733.48，本期低点7693.31；收盘位于日内区间27%。",
        "baseline": {
          "label": "本期低点、20日均线与本期高点",
          "sampleSize": null,
          "percentile": null,
          "status": "available"
        },
        "meaning": "结论：收盘未取得趋势位置支持，先按弱势结构处理。",
        "causalRole": "价格确认",
        "relation": "supports",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx"
        ],
        "timeAlignment": {
          "asOf": "2026-10-14",
          "cutoffAt": "2026-10-14T16:00:00-04:00",
          "status": "aligned"
        },
        "counterEvidence": "标普500收盘若突破7789.15或跌破7693.31，当前边界解释需要重算。",
        "informationGain": {
          "total": 5,
          "maximum": 9,
          "anomaly": 1,
          "decisionImpact": 2,
          "independence": 1,
          "timeQuality": 1,
          "explanation": "异常1/3 + 决策影响2/3 + 独立验证1/2 + 时点质量1/1 = 5/9。"
        },
        "eligibleMainContradiction": false
      }
    ],
    "contextEvidenceCandidates": [],
    "dimensionCoverage": [
      {
        "dimension": "historical_percentile",
        "label": "历史分位与异常程度",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "使用同一指数快照内可复算的5日滚动收益，样本较短并明确披露。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      },
      {
        "dimension": "earnings_revision",
        "label": "盈利预测修正",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "valuation_risk_premium",
        "label": "估值与风险溢价",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "已取得无风险利率变化，但缺少指数盈利收益率，不能计算股权风险溢价。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "positioning_derivatives",
        "label": "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "cross_asset_validation",
        "label": "跨资产验证",
        "status": "available",
        "reason": "同一信息截止时点内比较利率与股票价格方向。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "profit_redistribution",
        "label": "产业链利润重新分配",
        "status": "unavailable",
        "reason": "本期没有同日行业表，不能推断产业链利润重新分配。"
      },
      {
        "dimension": "market_pricing_degree",
        "label": "市场已定价程度",
        "status": "partial",
        "reason": "只有价格路径分位，缺少一致预期和估值变化，不能完整衡量已定价程度。",
        "sampleSize": 16
      }
    ],
    "evidence": [
      {
        "title": "中期位置决定主判断",
        "fact": "1/3个指数高于20日均线；近5日上涨的有1/3个。标普500近20日+2.21%。",
        "meaning": "一日涨跌只改变反弹力度，持续站回均线才能改变趋势判断。",
        "role": "主证据",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx",
          "us-ndx",
          "us-dji"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "谁在领先：一天与一个月要交叉核对",
        "fact": "纳斯达克综合指数相对标普500：当日-0.77个百分点，近20日+0.54个百分点。",
        "meaning": "20日领先但当天转弱，原领先方向正在回吐优势；不再把它当作当日主线。",
        "role": "风格证据",
        "sources": [
          "us-ndx",
          "us-spx"
        ]
      },
      {
        "title": "收盘承接能否确认趋势",
        "fact": "标普500收于7718.94，位于日内区间的27%位置；距20日均线-0.19%。",
        "meaning": "收盘没有收复均线，盘中回升尚不足以推翻主判断。",
        "role": "收盘证据",
        "sources": [
          "us-spx"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "alternative": {
      "title": "更乐观的解释：全面反转已开始",
      "text": "反对理由：2/3个指数仍低于20日均线，近5日上涨的有1个。即使局部反弹，也不足以覆盖这组趋势证据。"
    },
    "macro": [
      {
        "title": "估值约束",
        "fact": "美国10年期国债收益率5.21%（2026-10-13），较2026-10-09-3基点。",
        "meaning": "利率下降 → 折现压力减轻 → 长久期资产估值环境改善。若成长指数继续跑输，市场还未认可这条传导。",
        "role": "背景变量",
        "sources": [
          "us10y"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industry": [
      {
        "title": "成长与传统权重的分化决定盈利验证重点",
        "fact": "纳斯达克综合指数相对标普500当日-0.77个百分点、近20日+0.54个百分点。",
        "meaning": "纳斯达克与标普的差值只能代表指数风格，不能证明所有科技行业同向。成长方向下一步核对盈利兑现与现金流，传统权重则核对需求、成本和利润率。",
        "role": "行业经营",
        "sources": [
          "us-ndx",
          "us-spx"
        ]
      }
    ],
    "industryStructure": null,
    "opportunities": [
      {
        "title": "先看轮动能否变成持续领先",
        "text": "纳斯达克综合指数与标普500的单日、20日强弱未形成一致结论。本期不选定持续主线，保留两者对照。",
        "condition": "标普500收复7733.48后，再把整体修复的优先级上调。"
      }
    ],
    "risks": [
      {
        "title": "承接失效",
        "text": "标普500收盘跌破7693.31，本期低点被击穿，下调当前判断。"
      },
      {
        "title": "轮动误判",
        "text": "纳斯达克综合指数相对标普500单日-0.77个百分点，但20日差值为+0.54个百分点。两个窗口方向不同，把单日赢家当成持续主线是本期主要风险。"
      }
    ],
    "scenarios": [
      {
        "label": "主判断",
        "title": "偏弱震荡",
        "text": "标普500收盘仍在7693.31与7789.15之间，维持本期判断。"
      },
      {
        "label": "上调判断",
        "title": "价格突破 + 趋势扩散",
        "text": "标普500收盘高于7789.15，且观察指数中超过半数站上20日均线，上调为更广泛的趋势修复。"
      },
      {
        "label": "下调判断",
        "title": "收盘跌破本期低点",
        "text": "标普500收盘低于7693.31，承接失效，按下行风险扩大处理。"
      }
    ],
    "predictions": [
      {
        "market": "us",
        "horizonSessions": 20,
        "indicatorId": "us-spx",
        "indicator": "标普500收盘",
        "direction": "<",
        "threshold": 7718.94,
        "unit": "点",
        "dueSession": "2026-11-11",
        "dueAt": "2026-11-11T16:00:00-05:00",
        "confidence": 0.61,
        "invalidation": "2026-11-11收盘若不低于7718.94点，原判断失效。",
        "rationale": "当日、近5日与20日均线位置的加权方向分为-0.47；当前状态为偏弱震荡。",
        "statement": "20个交易日后（2026-11-11），标普500预计低于7718.94点。",
        "id": "pred-market-659e4d8d2a193a9b1b64"
      }
    ],
    "sources": [
      {
        "id": "us-spx",
        "name": "标普500日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/usfqkline/get?param=usINX%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "us-ndx",
        "name": "纳斯达克综合指数日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/usfqkline/get?param=usIXIC%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "us-dji",
        "name": "道琼斯日线",
        "url": "https://web.ifzq.gtimg.cn/appstock/app/usfqkline/get?param=usDJI%2Cday%2C%2C%2C300%2Cqfq"
      },
      {
        "id": "us10y",
        "name": "美国财政部：Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve 10年期 · 2026-10-13",
        "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/daily-treasury-rates.csv/2026/all?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026&page&_format=csv"
      },
      {
        "id": "usdCnh",
        "name": "公开汇率数据集：USD/CNH日汇率（非官方） · 2026-10-14",
        "url": "https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@fawazahmed0/currency-api@latest/v1/currencies/usd.json"
      }
    ],
    "sectors": [],
    "counts": {
      "up": 0,
      "down": 3,
      "aboveMa20": 1,
      "belowMa20": 2,
      "total": 3,
      "weeklyUp": 1
    },
    "levels": {
      "name": "标普500",
      "support": 7693.31,
      "close": 7718.94,
      "ma20": 7733.4795,
      "confirmation": 7789.15,
      "toConfirmationPct": 0.9095808491839552,
      "toSupportPct": -0.33204040969354587
    },
    "dataGaps": [
      "观察范围为3个指数，不代表全市场个股涨跌家数。",
      "交易所未来日历尚未覆盖60个交易日，当前只登记可精确核对的20日预测。",
      "盈利预测修正：当前快照没有市场一致盈利预测及其上调、下调记录。",
      "仓位、拥挤度和衍生品定价：当前快照没有基金仓位、融资拥挤度、期权偏度或期货基差。",
      "产业链利润重新分配：本期没有同日行业表，不能推断产业链利润重新分配。"
    ],
    "productionSelectionUnchanged": true,
    "briefDigest": "64a640021950e5d996199b09ea1eae2b77073bc2664335d5fd10b5b023aa8106"
  }
}